case study on environmental pollution

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• Published: 29 October 2020

Urban and air pollution: a multi-city study of long-term effects of urban landscape patterns on air quality trends

• Lu Liang 1 &
• Peng Gong 2 , 3 , 4  

Scientific Reports volume  10 , Article number:  18618 ( 2020 ) Cite this article

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Most air pollution research has focused on assessing the urban landscape effects of pollutants in megacities, little is known about their associations in small- to mid-sized cities. Considering that the biggest urban growth is projected to occur in these smaller-scale cities, this empirical study identifies the key urban form determinants of decadal-long fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) trends in all 626 Chinese cities at the county level and above. As the first study of its kind, this study comprehensively examines the urban form effects on air quality in cities of different population sizes, at different development levels, and in different spatial-autocorrelation positions. Results demonstrate that the urban form evolution has long-term effects on PM 2.5 level, but the dominant factors shift over the urbanization stages: area metrics play a role in PM 2.5 trends of small-sized cities at the early urban development stage, whereas aggregation metrics determine such trends mostly in mid-sized cities. For large cities exhibiting a higher degree of urbanization, the spatial connectedness of urban patches is positively associated with long-term PM 2.5 level increases. We suggest that, depending on the city’s developmental stage, different aspects of the urban form should be emphasized to achieve long-term clean air goals.

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Introduction.

Air pollution represents a prominent threat to global society by causing cascading effects on individuals 1 , medical systems 2 , ecosystem health 3 , and economies 4 in both developing and developed countries 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 . About 90% of global citizens lived in areas that exceed the safe level in the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines 9 . Among all types of ecosystems, urban produce roughly 78% of carbon emissions and substantial airborne pollutants that adversely affect over 50% of the world’s population living in them 5 , 10 . While air pollution affects all regions, there exhibits substantial regional variation in air pollution levels 11 . For instance, the annual mean concentration of fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5  \(\upmu\mathrm{m}\) (PM 2.5 ) in the most polluted cities is nearly 20 times higher than the cleanest city according to a survey of 499 global cities 12 . Many factors can influence the regional air quality, including emissions, meteorology, and physicochemical transformations. Another non-negligible driver is urbanization—a process that alters the size, structure, and growth of cities in response to the population explosion and further leads to lasting air quality challenges 13 , 14 , 15 .

With the global trend of urbanization 16 , the spatial composition, configuration, and density of urban land uses (refer to as urban form) will continue to evolve 13 . The investigation of urban form impacts on air quality has been emerging in both empirical 17 and theoretical 18 research. While the area and density of artificial surface areas have well documented positive relationship with air pollution 19 , 20 , 21 , the effects of urban fragmentation on air quality have been controversial. In theory, compact cities promote high residential density with mixed land uses and thus reduce auto dependence and increase the usage of public transit and walking 21 , 22 . The compact urban development has been proved effective in mitigating air pollution in some cities 23 , 24 . A survey of 83 global urban areas also found that those with highly contiguous built-up areas emitted less NO 2 22 . In contrast, dispersed urban form can decentralize industrial polluters, improve fuel efficiency with less traffic congestion, and alleviate street canyon effects 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 . Polycentric and dispersed cities support the decentralization of jobs that lead to less pollution emission than compact and monocentric cities 29 . The more open spaces in a dispersed city support air dilution 30 . In contrast, compact cities are typically associated with stronger urban heat island effects 31 , which influence the availability and the advection of primary and secondary pollutants 32 .

The mixed evidence demonstrates the complex interplay between urban form and air pollution, which further implies that the inconsistent relationship may exist in cities at different urbanization levels and over different periods 33 . Few studies have attempted to investigate the urban form–air pollution relationship with cross-sectional and time series data 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 . Most studies were conducted in one city or metropolitan region 38 , 39 or even at the country level 40 . Furthermore, large cities or metropolitan areas draw the most attention in relevant studies 5 , 41 , 42 , and the small- and mid-sized cities, especially those in developing countries, are heavily underemphasized. However, virtually all world population growth 43 , 44 and most global economic growth 45 , 46 are expected to occur in those cities over the next several decades. Thus, an overlooked yet essential task is to account for various levels of cities, ranging from large metropolitan areas to less extensive urban area, in the analysis.

This study aims to improve the understanding of how the urban form evolution explains the decadal-long changes of the annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations in 626 cities at the county-level and above in China. China has undergone unprecedented urbanization over the past few decades and manifested a high degree of heterogeneity in urban development 47 . Thus, Chinese cities serve as a good model for addressing the following questions: (1) whether the changes in urban landscape patterns affect trends in PM 2.5 levels? And (2) if so, do the determinants vary by cities?

City boundaries

Our study period spans from the year 2000 to 2014 to keep the data completeness among all data sources. After excluding cities with invalid or missing PM 2.5 or sociodemographic value, a total of 626 cities, with 278 prefecture-level cities and 348 county-level cities, were selected. City boundaries are primarily based on the Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) urban extent polygons that were defined by the extent of the nighttime lights 48 , 49 . Few adjustments were made. First, in the GRUMP dataset, large agglomerations that include several cities were often described in one big polygon. We manually split those polygons into individual cities based on the China Administrative Regions GIS Data at 1:1 million scales 50 . Second, since the 1978 economic reforms, China has significantly restructured its urban administrative/spatial system. Noticeable changes are the abolishment of several prefectures and the promotion of many former county-level cities to prefecture-level cities 51 . Thus, all city names were cross-checked between the year 2000 and 2014, and the mismatched records were replaced with the latest names.

PM 2.5 concentration data

The annual mean PM 2.5 surface concentration (micrograms per cubic meter) for each city over the study period was calculated from the Global Annual PM 2.5 Grids at 0.01° resolution 52 . This data set combines Aerosol Optical Depth retrievals from multiple satellite instruments including the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), and the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS). The global 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem is further applied to relate this total column measure of aerosol to near-surface PM 2.5 concentration, and geographically weighted regression is finally used with global ground-based measurements to predict and adjust for the residual PM 2.5 bias per grid cell in the initial satellite-derived values.

Human settlement layer

The urban forms were quantified with the 40-year (1978–2017) record of annual impervious surface maps for both rural and urban areas in China 47 , 53 . This state-of-art product provides substantial spatial–temporal details on China’s human settlement changes. The annual impervious surface maps covering our study period were generated from 30-m resolution Landsat images acquired onboard Landsat 5, 7, and 8 using an automatic “Exclusion/Inclusion” mapping framework 54 , 55 . The output used here was the binary impervious surface mask, with the value of one indicating the presence of human settlement and the value of zero identifying non-residential areas. The product assessment concluded good performance. The cross-comparison against 2356 city or town locations in GeoNames proved an overall high agreement (88%) and approximately 80% agreement was achieved when compared against visually interpreted 650 urban extent areas in the year 1990, 2000, and 2010.

Control variables

To provide a holistic assessment of the urban form effects, we included control variables that are regarded as important in influencing air quality to account for the confounding effects.

Four variables, separately population size, population density, and two economic measures, were acquired from the China City Statistical Yearbook 56 (National Bureau of Statistics 2000–2014). Population size is used to control for the absolute level of pollution emissions 41 . Larger populations are associated with increased vehicle usage and vehicle-kilometers travels, and consequently boost tailpipes emissions 5 . Population density is a useful reflector of transportation demand and the fraction of emissions inhaled by people 57 . We also included gross regional product (GRP) and the proportion of GRP generated from the secondary sector (GRP2). The impact of economic development on air quality is significant but in a dynamic way 58 . The rising per capita income due to the concentration of manufacturing industrial activities can deteriorate air quality and vice versa if the stronger economy is the outcome of the concentration of less polluting high-tech industries. Meteorological conditions also have short- and long-term effects on the occurrence, transport, and dispersion of air pollutants 59 , 60 , 61 . Temperature affects chemical reactions and atmospheric turbulence that determine the formation and diffusion of particles 62 . Low air humidity can lead to the accumulation of air pollutants due to it is conducive to the adhesion of atmospheric particulate matter on water vapor 63 . Whereas high humidity can lead to wet deposition processes that can remove air pollutants by rainfall. Wind speed is a crucial indicator of atmospheric activity by greatly affect air pollutant transport and dispersion. All meteorological variables were calculated based on China 1 km raster layers of monthly relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed that are interpolated from over 800 ground monitoring stations 64 . Based on the monthly layer, we calculated the annual mean of each variable for each year. Finally, all pixels falling inside of the city boundary were averaged to represent the overall meteorological condition of each city.

Considering the dynamic urban form-air pollution relationship evidenced from the literature review, our hypothesis is: the determinants of PM 2.5 level trends are not the same for cities undergoing different levels of development or in different geographic regions. To test this hypothesis, we first categorized city groups following (1) social-economic development level, (2) spatial autocorrelation relationship, and (3) population size. We then assessed the relationship between urban form and PM 2.5 level trends by city groups. Finally, we applied the panel data models to different city groups for hypothesis testing and key determinant identification (Fig.  1 ).

Methodology workflow.

Calculation of urban form metrics

Based on the previous knowledge 65 , 66 , 67 , fifteen landscape metrics falling into three categories, separately area, shape, and aggregation, were selected. Those metrics quantify the compositional and configurational characteristics of the urban landscape, as represented by urban expansion, urban shape complexity, and compactness (Table 1 ).

Area metrics gives an overview of the urban extent and the size of urban patches that are correlated with PM 2.5 20 . As an indicator of the urbanization degree, total area (TA) typically increases constantly or remains stable, because the urbanization process is irreversible. Number of patches (NP) refers to the number of discrete parcels of urban settlement within a given urban extent and Mean Patch Size (AREA_MN) measures the average patch size. Patch density (PD) indicates the urbanization stages. It usually increases with urban diffusion until coalescence starts, after which decreases in number 66 . Largest Patch Index (LPI) measures the percentage of the landscape encompassed by the largest urban patch.

The shape complexity of urban patches was represented by Mean Patch Shape Index (SHAPE_MN), Mean Patch Fractal Dimension (FRAC_MN), and Mean Contiguity Index (CONTIG_MN). The greater irregularity the landscape shape, the larger the value of SHAPE_MN and FRAC_MN. CONTIG_MN is another method of assessing patch shape based on the spatial connectedness or contiguity of cells within a patch. Larger contiguous patches will result in larger CONTIG_MN.

Aggregation metrics measure the spatial compactness of urban land, which affects pollutant diffusion and dilution. Mean Euclidean nearest-neighbor distance (ENN_MN) quantifies the average distance between two patches within a landscape. It decreases as patches grow together and increases as the urban areas expand. Landscape Shape Index (LSI) indicates the divergence of the shape of a landscape patch that increases as the landscape becomes increasingly disaggregated 68 . Patch Cohesion Index (COHESION) is suggestive of the connectedness degree of patches 69 . Splitting Index (SPLIT) and Landscape Division Index (DIVISION) increase as the separation of urban patches rises, whereas, Mesh Size (MESH) decreases as the landscape becomes more fragmented. Aggregation Index (AI) measures the degree of aggregation or clumping of urban patches. Higher values of continuity indicate higher building densities, which may have a stronger effect on pollution diffusion.

The detailed descriptions of these indices are given by the FRAGSTATS user’s guide 70 . The calculation input is a layer of binary grids of urban/nonurban. The resulting output is a table containing one row for each city and multiple columns representing the individual metrics.

Division of cities

Division based on the socioeconomic development level.

The socioeconomic development level in China is uneven. The unequal development of the transportation system, descending in topography from the west to the east, combined with variations in the availability of natural and human resources and industrial infrastructure, has produced significantly wide gaps in the regional economies of China. By taking both the economic development level and natural geography into account, China can be loosely classified into Eastern, Central, and Western regions. Eastern China is generally wealthier than the interior, resulting from closeness to coastlines and the Open-Door Policy favoring coastal regions. Western China is historically behind in economic development because of its high elevation and rugged topography, which creates barriers in the transportation infrastructure construction and scarcity of arable lands. Central China, echoing its name, is in the process of economic development. This region neither benefited from geographic convenience to the coast nor benefited from any preferential policies, such as the Western Development Campaign.

Division based on spatial autocorrelation relationship

The second type of division follows the fact that adjacent cities are likely to form air pollution clusters due to the mixing and diluting nature of air pollutants 71 , i.e., cities share similar pollution levels as its neighbors. The underlying processes driving the formation of pollution hot spots and cold spots may differ. Thus, we further divided the city into groups based on the spatial clusters of PM 2.5 level changes.

Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) was used to determine the local patterns of PM 2.5 distribution by clustering cities with a significant association. In the presence of global spatial autocorrelation, LISA indicates whether a variable exhibits significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity at a given scale 72 . Practically, LISA relates each observation to its neighbors and assigns a value of significance level and degree of spatial autocorrelation, which is calculated by the similarity in variable \(z\) between observation \(i\) and observation \(j\) in the neighborhood of \(i\) defined by a matrix of weights \({w}_{ij}\) 7 , 73 :

where \({I}_{i}\) is the Moran’s I value for location \(i\) ; \({\sigma }^{2}\) is the variance of variable \(z\) ; \(\bar{z}\) is the average value of \(z\) with the sample number of \(n\) . The weight matrix \({w}_{ij}\) is defined by the k-nearest neighbors distance measure, i.e., each object’s neighborhood consists of four closest cites.

The computation of Moran’s I enables the identification of hot spots and cold spots. The hot spots are high-high clusters where the increase in the PM 2.5 level is higher than the surrounding areas, whereas cold spots are low-low clusters with the presence of low values in a low-value neighborhood. A Moran scatterplot, with x-axis as the original variable and y-axis as the spatially lagged variable, reflects the spatial association pattern. The slope of the linear fit to the scatter plot is an estimation of the global Moran's I 72 (Fig.  2 ). The plot consists of four quadrants, each defining the relationship between an observation 74 . The upper right quadrant indicates hot spots and the lower left quadrant displays cold spots 75 .

Moran’s I scatterplot. Figure was produced by R 3.4.3 76 .

Division based on population size

The last division was based on population size, which is a proven factor in changing per capita emissions in a wide selection of global cities, even outperformed land urbanization rate 77 , 78 , 79 . We used the 2014 urban population to classify the cities into four groups based on United Nations definitions 80 : (1) large agglomerations with a total population larger than 1 million; (2) mid-sized cities, 500,000–1 million; (3) small cities, 250,000–500,000, and (4) very small cities, 100,000–250,000.

Panel data analysis

The panel data analysis is an analytical method that deals with observations from multiple entities over multiple periods. Its capacity in analyzing the characteristics and changes from both the time-series and cross-section dimensions of data surpasses conventional models that purely focus on one dimension 81 , 82 . The estimation equation for the panel data model in this study is given as:

where the subscript \(i\) and \(t\) refer to city and year respectively. \(\upbeta _{{0}}\) is the intercept parameter and \(\upbeta _{{1}} - { }\upbeta _{{{18}}}\) are the estimates of slope coefficients. \(\varepsilon \) is the random error. All variables are transformed into natural logarithms.

Two methods can be used to obtain model estimates, separately fixed effects estimator and random effects estimator. The fixed effects estimator assumes that each subject has its specific characteristics due to inherent individual characteristic effects in the error term, thereby allowing differences to be intercepted between subjects. The random effects estimator assumes that the individual characteristic effect changes stochastically, and the differences in subjects are not fixed in time and are independent between subjects. To choose the right estimator, we run both models for each group of cities based on the Hausman specification test 83 . The null hypothesis is that random effects model yields consistent and efficient estimates 84 : \({H}_{0}{:}\,E\left({\varepsilon }_{i}|{X}_{it}\right)=0\) . If the null hypothesis is rejected, the fixed effects model will be selected for further inferences. Once the better estimator was determined for each model, one optimal panel data model was fit to each city group of one division type. In total, six, four, and eight runs were conducted for socioeconomic, spatial autocorrelation, and population division separately and three, two, and four panel data models were finally selected.

Spatial patterns of PM 2.5 level changes

During the period from 2000 to 2014, the annual mean PM 2.5 concentration of all cities increases from 27.78 to 42.34 µg/m 3 , both of which exceed the World Health Organization recommended annual mean standard (10 µg/m 3 ). It is worth noting that the PM 2.5 level in the year 2014 also exceeds China’s air quality Class 2 standard (35 µg/m 3 ) that applies to non-national park places, including urban and industrial areas. The standard deviation of annual mean PM 2.5 values for all cities increases from 12.34 to 16.71 µg/m 3 , which shows a higher variability of inter-urban PM 2.5 pollution after a decadal period. The least and most heavily polluted cities in China are Delingha, Qinghai (3.01 µg/m 3 ) and Jizhou, Hubei (64.15 µg/m 3 ) in 2000 and Hami, Xinjiang (6.86 µg/m 3 ) and Baoding, Hubei (86.72 µg/m 3 ) in 2014.

Spatially, the changes in PM 2.5 levels exhibit heterogeneous patterns across cities (Fig.  3 b). According to the socioeconomic level division (Fig.  3 a), the Eastern, Central, and Western region experienced a 38.6, 35.3, and 25.5 µg/m 3 increase in annual PM 2.5 mean , separately, and the difference among regions is significant according to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) results (Fig.  4 a). When stratified by spatial autocorrelation relationship (Fig.  3 c), the differences in PM 2.5 changes among the spatial clusters are even more dramatic. The average PM 2.5 increase in cities belonging to the high-high cluster is approximately 25 µg/m 3 , as compared to 5 µg/m 3 in the low-low clusters (Fig.  4 b). Finally, cities at four different population levels have significant differences in the changes of PM 2.5 concentration (Fig.  3 d), except for the mid-sized cities and large city agglomeration (Fig.  4 c).

( a ) Division of cities in China by socioeconomic development level and the locations of provincial capitals; ( b ) Changes in annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations between the year 2000 and 2014; ( c ) LISA cluster maps for PM 2.5 changes at the city level; High-high indicates a statistically significant cluster of high PM 2.5 level changes over the study period. Low-low indicates a cluster of low PM 2.5 inter-annual variation; No high-low cluster is reported; Low–high represents cities with high PM 2.5 inter-annual variation surrounded by cities with low variation; ( d ) Population level by cities in the year 2014. Maps were produced by ArcGIS 10.7.1 85 .

Boxplots of PM 2.5 concentration changes between 2000 and 2014 for city groups that are formed according to ( a ) socioeconomic development level division, ( b ) LISA clusters, and ( c ) population level. Asterisk marks represent the p value of ANOVA significant test between the corresponding pair of groups. Note ns not significant; * p value < 0.05; ** p value < 0.01; *** p value < 0.001; H–H high-high cluster, L–H low–high cluster, L–L denotes low–low cluster.

The effects of urban forms on PM 2.5 changes

The Hausman specification test for fixed versus random effects yields a p value less than 0.05, suggesting that the fixed effects model has better performance. We fit one panel data model to each city group and built nine models in total. All models are statistically significant at the p  < 0.05 level and have moderate to high predictive power with the R 2 values ranging from 0.63 to 0.95, which implies that 63–95% of the variation in the PM 2.5 concentration changes can be explained by the explanatory variables (Table 2 ).

The urban form—PM 2.5 relationships differ distinctly in Eastern, Central, and Western China. All models reach high R 2 values. Model for Eastern China (refer to hereafter as Eastern model) achieves the highest R 2 (0.90), and the model for the Western China (refer to hereafter as Western model) reaches the lowest R 2 (0.83). The shape metrics FRAC and CONTIG are correlated with PM 2.5 changes in the Eastern model, whereas the area metrics AREA demonstrates a positive effect in the Western model. In contrast to the significant associations between shape, area metrics and PM 2.5 level changes in both Eastern and Western models, no such association was detected in the Central model. Nonetheless, two aggregation metrics, LSI and AI, play positive roles in determining the PM 2.5 trends in the Central model.

For models built upon the LISA clusters, the H–H model (R 2  = 0.95) reaches a higher fitting degree than the L–L model (R 2  = 0.63). The estimated coefficients vary substantially. In the H–H model, the coefficient of CONTIG is positive, which indicates that an increase in CONTIG would increase PM 2.5 pollution. In contrast, no shape metrics but one area metrics AREA is significant in the L–L model.

The results of the regression models built for cities at different population levels exhibit a distinct pattern. No urban form metrics was identified to have a significant relationship with the PM 2.5 level changes in groups of very small and mid-sized cities. For small size cities, the aggregation metrics COHESION was positively associated whereas AI was negatively related. For mid-sized cities and large agglomerations, CONTIG is the only significant variable that is positively related to PM 2.5 level changes.

Urban form is an effective measure of long-term PM 2.5 trends

All panel data models are statistically significant regardless of the data group they are built on, suggesting that the associations between urban form and ambient PM 2.5 level changes are discernible at all city levels. Importantly, these relationships are found to hold when controlling for population size and gross domestic product, implying that the urban landscape patterns have effects on long-term PM 2.5 trends that are independent of regional economic performance. These findings echo with the local, regional, and global evidence of urban form effect on various air pollution types 5 , 14 , 21 , 22 , 24 , 39 , 78 .

Although all models demonstrate moderate to high predictive power, the way how different urban form metrics respond to the dependent variable varies. Of all the metrics tested, shape metrics, especially CONTIG has the strongest effect on PM 2.5 trends in cities belonging to the high-high cluster, Eastern, and large urban agglomerations. All those regions have a strong economy and higher population density 86 . In the group of cities that are moderately developed, such as the Central region, as well as small- and mid-sized cities, aggregation metrics play a dominant negative role in PM 2.5 level changes. In contrast, in the least developed cities belonging to the low-low cluster regions and Western China, the metrics describing size and number of urban patches are the strongest predictors. AREA and NP are positively related whereas TA is negatively associated.

The impacts of urban form metrics on air quality vary by urbanization degree

Based on the above observations, how urban form affects within-city PM 2.5 level changes may differ over the urbanization stages. We conceptually summarized the pattern in Fig.  5 : area metrics have the most substantial influence on air pollution changes at the early urban development stage, and aggregation metrics emerge at the transition stage, whereas shape metrics affect the air quality trends at the terminal stage. The relationship between urban form and air pollution has rarely been explored with such a wide range of city selections. Most prior studies were focused on large urban agglomeration areas, and thus their conclusions are not representative towards small cities at the early or transition stage of urbanization.

The most influential metric of urban form in affecting PM 2.5 level changes at different urbanization stages.

Not surprisingly, the area metrics, which describe spatial grain of the landscape, exert a significant effect on PM 2.5 level changes in small-sized cities. This could be explained by the unusual urbanization speed of small-sized cities in the Chinese context. Their thriving mostly benefited from the urbanization policy in the 1980s, which emphasized industrialization of rural, small- and mid-sized cities 87 . With the large rural-to-urban migration and growing public interest in investing real estate market, a side effect is that the massive housing construction that sometimes exceeds market demand. Residential activities decline in newly built areas of smaller cities in China, leading to what are known as ghost cities 88 . Although ghost cities do not exist for all cities, high rate of unoccupied dwellings is commonly seen in cities under the prefectural level. This partly explained the negative impacts of TA on PM 2.5 level changes, as an expanded while unoccupied or non-industrialized urban zones may lower the average PM 2.5 concentration within the city boundary, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that the air quality got improved in the city cores.

Aggregation metrics at the landscape scale is often referred to as landscape texture that quantifies the tendency of patch types to be spatially aggregated; i.e., broadly speaking, aggregated or “contagious” distributions. This group of metrics is most effective in capturing the PM 2.5 trends in mid-sized cities (population range 25–50 k) and Central China, where the urbanization process is still undergoing. The three significant variables that reflect the spatial property of dispersion, separately landscape shape index, patch cohesion index, and aggregation index, consistently indicate that more aggregated landscape results in a higher degree of PM 2.5 level changes. Theoretically, the more compact urban form typically leads to less auto dependence and heavier reliance on the usage of public transit and walking, which contributes to air pollution mitigation 89 . This phenomenon has also been observed in China, as the vehicle-use intensity (kilometers traveled per vehicle per year, VKT) has been declining over recent years 90 . However, VKT only represents the travel intensity of one car and does not reflect the total distance traveled that cumulatively contribute to the local pollution. It should be noted that the private light-duty vehicle ownership in China has increased exponentially and is forecast to reach 23–42 million by 2050, with the share of new-growth purchases representing 16–28% 90 . In this case, considering the increased total distance traveled, the less dispersed urban form can exert negative effects on air quality by concentrating vehicle pollution emissions in a limited space.

Finally, urban contiguity, observed as the most effective shape metric in indicating PM 2.5 level changes, provides an assessment of spatial connectedness across all urban patches. Urban contiguity is found to have a positive effect on the long-term PM 2.5 pollution changes in large cities. Urban contiguity reflects to which degree the urban landscape is fragmented. Large contiguous patches result in large CONTIG_MN values. Among the 626 cities, only 11% of cities experience negative changes in urban contiguity. For example, Qingyang, Gansu is one of the cities-featuring leapfrogs and scattered development separated by vacant land that may later be filled in as the development continues (Fig.  6 ). Most Chinese cities experienced increased urban contiguity, with less fragmented and compacted landscape. A typical example is Shenzhou, Hebei, where CONTIG_MN rose from 0.27 to 0.45 within the 14 years. Although the 13 counties in Shenzhou are very far scattered from each other, each county is growing intensively internally rather than sprawling further outside. And its urban layout is thus more compact (Fig.  6 ). The positive association revealed in this study contradicts a global study indicating that cities with highly contiguous built-up areas have lower NO 2 pollution 22 . We noticed that the principal emission sources of NO 2 differ from that of PM 2.5. NO 2 is primarily emitted with the combustion of fossil fuels (e.g., industrial processes and power generation) 6 , whereas road traffic attributes more to PM 2.5 emissions. Highly connected urban form is likely to cause traffic congestion and trap pollution inside the street canyon, which accumulates higher PM 2.5 concentration. Computer simulation results also indicate that more compact cities improve urban air quality but are under the premise that mixed land use should be presented 18 . With more connected impervious surfaces, it is merely impossible to expect increasing urban green spaces. If compact urban development does not contribute to a rising proportion of green areas, then such a development does not help mitigating air pollution 41 .

Six cities illustrating negative to positive changes in CONTIG_MN and AREA_MN. Pixels in black show the urban areas in the year 2000 and pixels in red are the expanded urban areas from the year 2000 to 2014. Figure was produced by ArcGIS 10.7.1 85 .

Conclusions

This study explores the regional land-use patterns and air quality in a country with an extraordinarily heterogeneous urbanization pattern. Our study is the first of its kind in investigating such a wide range selection of cities ranging from small-sized ones to large metropolitan areas spanning a long time frame, to gain a comprehensive insight into the varying effects of urban form on air quality trends. And the primary insight yielded from this study is the validation of the hypothesis that the determinants of PM 2.5 level trends are not the same for cities at various developmental levels or in different geographic regions. Certain measures of urban form are robust predictors of air quality trends for a certain group of cities. Therefore, any planning strategy aimed at reducing air pollution should consider its current development status and based upon which, design its future plan. To this end, it is also important to emphasize the main shortcoming of this analysis, which is generally centered around the selection of control variables. This is largely constrained by the available information from the City Statistical Yearbook. It will be beneficial to further polish this study by including other important controlling factors, such as vehicle possession.

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Acknowledgements

Lu Liang received intramural research funding support from the UNT Office of Research and Innovation. Peng Gong is partially supported by the National Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (2016YFA0600104), and donations from Delos Living LLC and the Cyrus Tang Foundation to Tsinghua University.

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Liang, L., Gong, P. Urban and air pollution: a multi-city study of long-term effects of urban landscape patterns on air quality trends. Sci Rep 10 , 18618 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-74524-9

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Acknowledgments and Support

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Suggested citation: Khan, Adeel, Uday Suryanarayanan, Tanushree Ganguly, and Karthik Ganesan. Improving Air Quality Management through Forecasts: A Case Study of Delhi’s Air Pollution of Winter 2021. New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

This study assesses Delhi’s air pollution scenario in the winter of 2021 and the actions to tackle it. Winter 2021 was unlike previous winters as the control measures mandated by the Commission of Air Quality Management (CAQM) in Delhi National Capital Region and adjoining areas were rolled out. These measures included the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) and additional emergency responses instituted on the basis of air quality and meteorological forecasts. Given that the forecasts play a major role in emergency response measures, the study assesses the reliability of different forecasts. Further, it gauges the impact of the emergency measures on Delhi’s air quality levels. It also discusses the primary driver of air pollution in winter 2021.

Key Findings

• While air quality forecasts picked up the pollution trends, they are not yet very accurate in predicting high pollution episodes ('very poor' and 'severe' air quality days)
• When the restrictions were in place like ban on entry of trucks, construction & demolition activities and others, air quality did not descend into the ‘severe +’ category. Moreover, air quality improved from ‘severe’ to ‘poor’ when all the restrictions were in place simultaneously, aided by better meteorology.
• However, when the restrictions were finally lifted, the air quality spiralled back into the ‘severe’ category resulting in the longest six days ‘severe’ air quality spell of the season.
• There has been no significant improvement in Delhi's winter air quality since 2019. In winter 2021, air quality was in the ‘very poor’ to ‘severe’ category on about 75 per cent of days.
• In the winter of 2021, transport(∼ 12 per cent), dust (∼ 7 per cent) and domestic biomass burning (∼ 6 per cent) were the largest local contributors.
• About 64 per cent of Delhi’s winter pollution load comes from outside of Delhi’s boundaries.

HAVE A QUERY?

Executive Summary

With every passing winter, the need to address Delhi’s air pollution grows more urgent. During the winter of 2021, the Supreme Court, the Delhi Government, and the Commission for Air Quality Management in the NCR and Adjoining Areas (CAQM), all sprang into action to arrest rising pollution levels in Delhi. The interventions ranged from shutting down power plants and restricting the entry of trucks into Delhi to school closures and using forecasts to pre-emptively roll out emergency measures. However, the impact of these interventions on Delhi’s air quality begs further investigation.

Through this study, we intend to examine what worked and what did not this season. As is the case every year, meteorological conditions played an important role in both aggravating and alleviating pollution levels. To assess the impact of meteorological conditions on pollution levels, we analysed pollution levels during the months of October to January vis-a-vis meteorological parameters. To understand the driving causes of pollution in the winter of 2021, we tracked the changes in relative contribution of various polluting sources as the season progressed.

While pre-emptive actions based on forecasts was a step in the right direction, an assessment of forecast performance is a prerequisite to integrating them in decision-making. We also assessed the performance of forecasts by comparing them with the measured onground concentrations. We also studied the timing and effectiveness of emergency directions issued in response to forecasts.

We sourced data on pollution levels from Central Pollution Control Board’s (CPCB) real-time air quality data portal and meteorological information from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). For information on modelled concentration and source contributions, we used data from publicly available air quality forecasts, including Delhi’s Air Quality Early Warning System (AQ-EWS) (3-day and 10-day), the Decision Support System for Air Quality Management in Delhi (DSS), and UrbanEmissions.Info (UE).

Figure ES1 In Delhi, 75% of Winter 2021 saw 'very poor' to 'severe' air quality

Source: Authors’ analysis, data from Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Note: Air quality index (AQI) for the day is calculated using the PM2.5 concentration at the same stations with a minimum of 75 per cent of the data being available.

A. 75 per cent of days were in ‘Very poor’ to ‘Severe’ air quality during winter 2021

The number of ‘Severe’ plus ‘Very poor’ air quality days during the winter has not decreased in the last three years (Figure ES1). During the winter of 2021 (15 October 2021 - 15 January 2022), about 75 per cent of the days, air quality were in the ‘Very poor’ to ‘Severe’ category. Interestingly, despite more farm fire incidents in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh in 2021 compared to 2020, Delhi’s PM2.5 concentration during the stubble burning phase (i.e., 15 October to 15 November) was lesser in 2021. This was primarily due to better meteorological conditions like higher wind speed and more number of rainy days during this period.

B. Regional influence predominant; Transport, dust, and domestic biomass burning are the largest local contributors to air pollution

We find that about 64 per cent of Delhi’s winter pollution load comes from outside Delhi’s boundaries (Figure ES2(a). Biomass burning of agricultural waste during the stubble burning phase and burning for heating and cooking needs during peak winter are estimated to be the major sources of air pollution from outside the city according to UE (Figure ES2(b). Locally, transport (12 per cent), dust (7 per cent), and domestic biomass burning (6 per cent) contribute the most to the PM2.5 pollution load of the city. While transport and dust are perennial sources of pollution in the city, the residential space heating component is a seasonal source. However, this seasonal contribution is so significant that as the use of biomass as a heat source in and around Delhi starts going up as winter progresses, the residential sector becomes the single-largest contributor by 15 December (Figure ES2(b)). This indicates the need to ramp up programmes to encourage households to shift to cleaner fuels for cooking and space heating.

Figure ES 2(a) Transport, dust, and domestic biomass burning are the largest local contributors to the PM2.5 pollution load in Delhi

Source: Authors’ analysis, source contribution data from DSS and UE. Note: Modelled estimates of relative source contributions retrieved from UE and DSS.

Figure ES 2(b) Both local and regional sources need to be targeted for reducing Delhi’s pollution

Source: Authors’ analysis, source contribution data from UE. Note: Source contribution data retrieved from UE district products which have larger geographical cover and lower resolution.

C. Forecasts picked up the pollution trend but could not predict high pollution episodes

The availability of multiple forecasts provides decisionmakers with a range of options to choose from. At the same time, this is an obstacle to effective onground action. To streamline the flow of relevant information from forecasters to decision-makers, it is important to analyse the forecasts and assess their reliability. We found that all the forecasts identified pollution trends accurately (Figure ES3) but their accuracy in predicting pollution episodes (‘Severe’ and ‘Very Poor’ air quality days) decreases with future time horizon.

D. Though forecasts were used to impose restrictions, the lifting of the curbs was ill-timed

In November–December 2021, apart from the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) coming into effect in DelhiNCR, the CAQM introduced several emergency response measures through a series of directions and orders. The Supreme Court also stepped in from time to time to direct the authorities to act on air pollution.

As a first, the CAQM used air quality and meteorological forecasts to time and tailor emergency response actions. The first set of restrictions was put in place on 16 November 2021, and all were lifted by 20 December 2021, save the one on industrial operations.

Figure ES3 All the forecasts can predict the trend accurately

Source: Authors’ analysis, data from Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), AQ-EWS, and UE. Note: r represents correlation.

During this period, all the forecasts except AQ-EWS (3-day) underpredicted PM2.5 levels. Therefore, by looking at the difference between forecasted and measured concentrations, it is not possible to gauge the effectiveness of the restrictions conclusively. Hence, multiple models or different modelling experiments are needed to estimate the impact of the intervention.

It should be noted that during the restriction period, air quality did not descend into the ‘Severe +’ category. Further, when all the restrictions were in place along with better meteorology, air quality did improve from ‘Severe’ to ‘Poor’. The first prolonged ‘Severe’ air quality period in December was witnessed between 21 December and 26 December. While the forecasts sounded an alarm for high pollution levels during this period, all restrictions barring those on industrial activities were lifted. Subsequently, PM2.5 levels remained above 250 µgm -3 for six straight days resulting in the longest ‘Severe’ air quality spell of the season. (Figure ES4).

Figure ES4 The lifting of the restrictions was ill-timed with high pollution levels forecasted in the following days

Source: Authors’ analysis, data from Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Note: C&D stands for construction and demolition activities. Work from home (WFH) stands for the 50% cap on employee attendance in the office. Industrial restrictions stand for compulsory switching over to Piped Natural Gas (PNG) or other cleaner fuels within industries and non-compliant industries being allowed to operate restrictively.

The discussion above highlights that despite the emergency measures taken in winter 2021, the air quality conditions were far from satisfactory. Calibrating emergency responses to forecasted source contributions may result in a greater impact on air quality. Our study recommends the following to help the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi ( GNCTD) and CAQM plan and execute emergency responses better:

• GRAP implementation must be based strictly on modelled source contributions obtained from forecasts and timed accordingly. This will eliminate the need for ad-hoc emergency directions to restrict various activities. For instance, restrictions on private vehicles can be brought in when the air quality is forecasted to be ‘Very poor’ as transport is a significant contributor.
• Surveys or assessments are required in the residential areas across NCR to explore the prevalence of biomass usage for heating and cooking purposes. Based on this, a targeted support mechanism is required to allow households and others to use clean fuels for cooking and heating. There is also a need to assess and promote alternatives for space heating.
• Air quality forecasts should be relayed to the public via social media platforms to encourage them to take preventive measures such as avoiding unnecessary travel and wearing masks when stepping out. This will help reduce individual exposure and activity levels in the city.
• Ground level data and insights need to be incorporated in forecasting models. Data from sources like social media posts (text and photos), camera feeds from public places, and pollution related grievance portals like SAMEER, Green Delhi, and SDMC 311 can provide near-real time information on pollution sources. Then aggregated representation of polluting activities based on recent days or weeks can be used as an input in models. Ultimately, a crowd-sourced emissions inventory for NCT/NCR will benefit modellers and policymakers alike while also making pollution curtailment efforts transparent.
• Combining the available air quality forecasts through an ensemble approach can help improve the accuracy of the forecasts and prompt better coordination within the modelling community.

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A Case Study of Environmental Injustice: The Failure in Flint

Carla campbell.

1 Department of Public Health Sciences, Room 408, College of Health Sciences, University of Texas at El Paso, 500 W. University Ave, El Paso, TX 79968, USA

Rachael Greenberg

2 National Nurse-led Care Consortium (NNCC), Philadelphia, PA 19102, USA; su.ccnn@grebneergr

Deepa Mankikar

3 Research and Evaluation Group, Public Health Management Corporation, Philadelphia, PA 19102, USA; gro.cmhp@rakiknamd

Ronald D. Ross

4 Occupational and Environmental Medicine Consultant, Las Cruces, NM 88001, USA; [email protected]

The failure by the city of Flint, Michigan to properly treat its municipal water system after a change in the source of water, has resulted in elevated lead levels in the city’s water and an increase in city children’s blood lead levels. Lead exposure in young children can lead to decrements in intelligence, development, behavior, attention and other neurological functions. This lack of ability to provide safe drinking water represents a failure to protect the public’s health at various governmental levels. This article describes how the tragedy happened, how low-income and minority populations are at particularly high risk for lead exposure and environmental injustice, and ways that we can move forward to prevent childhood lead exposure and lead poisoning, as well as prevent future Flint-like exposure events from occurring. Control of the manufacture and use of toxic chemicals to prevent adverse exposure to these substances is also discussed. Environmental injustice occurred throughout the Flint water contamination incident and there are lessons we can all learn from this debacle to move forward in promoting environmental justice.

1. Description of the Flint Water Crisis

At this point, most Americans have heard of the avoidable and abject failure of government on the local, state and federal level; environmental authorities; and water company officials to prevent the mass poisoning of hundreds of children and adults in Flint, Michigan from April 2014 to December 2015 [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]. One tends to imagine chemical poisoning as a victim dropping dead in a murder mystery, or the immediate casualties in an industrial accident or a chemical warfare attack. Unlike the release of methyl isocyanate gas in Bhopal, India in 1984 or the release of radiation with the radiation accident in Chernobyl, Ukraine in 1986, the poisoning of the population in Flint was an insidious one. People drinking the contaminated water would never have known they had elevated blood lead levels (BLLs) without specific medical testing for blood lead levels. In fact, if the water contamination had not been made public, most exposed children and their families would have never suspected they were being exposed over a 20-month period of time, and it would be expected that the water contamination and lead exposure would have continued up until today.

Lead can cause immediate acute poisoning but the subacute, moderate, long-term exposure impact of concern in Flint is more common, and much more insidious. Any resulting behavioral disturbance or loss of intellectual function would probably not been have linked by their physicians or families to lead poisoning, and instead accepted as something that had just occurred. Additionally, the adverse effects from this event may take years to surface as most negative health effects from low-level lead exposure develop slowly [ 4 ]. Hypertension and kidney damage may not present until long after the exposure. Any resulting behavioral disturbance or loss of intellectual function would probably have not been linked by their physicians or families to lead poisoning, and instead accepted as something that had just occurred.

The Flint disaster was due to the switch in water supply from Lake Huron to the Flint River, which was then not treated with an anti-corrosion chemical to prevent lead particles and solubilized lead from being released from the interior of water pipes, particularly those from lead service lines or those with lead solder. This water was known to be very corrosive, so corrosive that, in fact, it was not used by the nearby auto industry [ 2 ]. The General Motors plant switched to water from the neighboring Flint Township when General Motors noticed rust spots on newly machined parts [ 2 ]. This corrosive new water supply was then not treated with the anti-corrosion treatment, in noncompliance with the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Lead and Copper Rule, which calls for action when a water supply is found to be corrosive to prevent the potential release of metals from water service lines [ 5 ].

A national water expert, Dr. Marc Edwards, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech University, has stated that the published instructions by EPA for collection of water samples for lead analysis were biased in the direction of underestimating the lead content of the water samples. He had spent years communicating this problem to EPA without a subsequent change in these instructions [ 6 ]. Dr. Edwards testified before Congress in spring 2016 that the Regional EPA Administrator was not alert to what was happening in Flint. Dr. Edwards also published papers previously bringing to the public attention the lead contamination of drinking water in Washington, DC. After Washington, DC made a change in its water disinfectant from chlorine to chloramine, residents were exposed to water with high levels of lead (140 ppb and above) from 2001 to 2004 [ 7 , 8 ]. This resulted in an increase of blood lead levels in young children (many from high-risk neighborhoods) of four times the amount that it was prior to the change in water disinfectant [ 7 , 8 ]. Dr. Edwards was a key player in ensuring that this issue was brought to light and those responsible parties were held accountable [ 9 ]. For comparison, the EPA standard for maximum contaminant level for lead in water is 15 ppb [ 5 ].

Regarding the Flint, Michigan water contamination incident, Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha, a local pediatrician, performed a study looking at blood lead levels (BLLs) from Flint children from 2013 (before the water change) to 2015 (after the water change), assessing the percentage of BLLs over the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reference level of 5 µg/dL, reviewing water levels in Flint, and identifying geographical locations of blood and water levels using geospatial analysis. Her study demonstrated that the level of elevated blood lead levels (above 5 µg/dL) in a group of Flint children almost doubled between levels collected prior to the change in water source and afterwards; among children living in the area with highest water lead levels the percentage with elevated BLLs was approximately three times higher when compared to pre-diversion levels (4% versus 10.6%) [ 10 ]. These are extraordinary changes! (The specific blood lead levels or even range of BLLs was not reported in the article.) Unfortunately, many children in Flint already had multiple risk factors for lead poisoning, including “poor nutrition, concentrated poverty, and older housing stock” [ 10 ].

2. Elevated Blood Lead Levels in US Children and the Adverse Health Impacts and Costs of Exposure

Lead exposure in young children can lead to decrements in intelligence, development, behavior, attention, and other neurological functions. Two giants in childhood lead poisoning research and advocacy, Dr. Philip Landrigan and Dr. David Bellinger, summarize the adverse effects of lead very completely, yet succinctly: “Lead is a devastating poison. It damages children’s brains, erodes intelligence, diminishes creativity and the ability to weigh consequences and make good decisions, impairs language skills, shortens attention span, and predisposes to hyperactive and aggressive behavior. Lead exposure in early childhood is linked to later increased risk for dyslexia and school failure.” [ 11 ] Other articles and reports have also confirmed these adverse effects [ 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 ].

Therefore, it is important to determine the extent of the problem of elevated blood lead levels in U.S. children. Currently, based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2003 to 2012, 3.24% of children overall aged 1–5 years had a BLL > 5 µg/dL, compared with 7.8% of non-Hispanic Black (NHB) children [ 21 ]. Males had higher adjusted BLLs than females, and a higher poverty income ratio was associated with lower adjusted blood lead levels. Adjusted BLLs increased in renter-occupied (as opposed to owner-occupied) homes and with an increase in the numbers of smokers inside the home [ 21 ]. A previous analysis by Dixon et al. [ 22 ] of NHANES data from 1999 to 2004 found that BLLs were affected by the levels of lead in the floor and the condition of and surface type of the floor; that non-Hispanic Black children had higher BLLs than non-Hispanic white (NHW) children; that Mexican-born children had higher BLLs than those born in the U.S.; that houses built before 1940 were associated with children with higher BLLs; that children living in houses with a smoker had higher BLLs than those living with non-smokers; and that the odds of NHB children having BLLs > 5 µg/dL and > 10 µg/dL were more than double that of NHW children [ 21 , 22 ]. A recent report suggested that many children requiring blood lead testing due to Medicaid insurance status or state or city requirements for testing are not getting tested, and/or the results are not being properly followed up on [ 23 ].

The costs from lead poisoning are considerable, as are the cost savings for prevention of childhood lead poisoning. Attina and Trasande state that in the United States and Europe the lead-attributable economic costs have been estimated at $50.9 and $55 billion dollars, respectively [ 24 ]. Interestingly, they estimate a total cost of $977 billion of international dollars in low- and middle-income countries, with economic losses equal to $134.7 billion in Africa, $142.3 billion in Latin American and the Caribbean, and $699.9 billion in Asia, giving a total economic loss for these countries in the range of $728.6–$1,162.5 billion [ 24 ]. A previous analysis showed that each dollar invested in lead paint hazard control results in a return of $17–$221 or a net savings of $181–$269 billion for a specific cohort of children under six years of age as the benefits of BLL reduction would include categories such as health care, lifetime earnings, tax revenue, special education, attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder, and the direct costs of crime [ 25 ]. Another prior analysis estimated the economic benefits resulting from an historic lowering of children’s BLLs as measured by data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to be $110–$319 billion for each year’s cohort of 3.8 million two-year-old children, using a discounted lifetime earnings of $723,300 for each two-year-old child in 2000 dollars [ 26 ]. These estimated benefits were due to projected improvements in worker productivity due to increased intelligence quotient (I.Q.) points.

3. How the Flint Case and Other Examples Exhibit Environmental Injustice

Most affected by this egregious environmental disaster was a mostly poor and African-American population [ 27 ]. Some have speculated whether such an error in judgment might have occurred if a different population had been involved, and The New York Times uses the term racism in its editorial [ 27 ]. Another New York Times article talks of an analysis of emails from Governor Rick Snyder’s office that did not mention race but talked of costs involving Flint’s water supply, questioned scientific data regarding water contamination with lead, and mentioned uncertainties about the duties of state and local health officials [ 28 ]. It also mentions that some civil rights advocates were indicating that the Flint water crisis appeared to represent environmental racism [ 28 ]. The article goes on to discuss that the switch in water source was explicitly decided in favor of saving money for the financially unstable city of Flint, and that an emergency manager appointed by Gov. Snyder to carry out the running of the city was himself African-American [ 28 ]. One of Gov. Snyder’s key staff people sounded an alarm about the concern for lead in water, but the state health department responded back that the Flint water was safe [ 28 ].

The Flint Water Advisory Task Force, comprised of five experts in public health and water policy and convened by Governor Snyder, repeatedly stated in its findings that the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) improperly and inaccurately described the Flint water as being safe, which unfortunately was then interpreted as accurate by other state agencies and city and county agencies [ 29 ]. The Task Force report also described the Flint water crisis as “a story of government failure, intransigence, unpreparedness, delay, inaction and environmental injustice”, and adds that the MDEQ failed in its responsibility to properly enforce drinking water regulations, while the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHD) failed its mission to protect public health [ 29 ]. A recent article suggests these two agencies produced sampling data that were flawed, failed to provide accurate information to the Governor’s office, the EPA and the public, and did not respond appropriately when given information by environmental health and medical professionals [ 30 ]. The Task Force report also explains that state-appointed emergency managers replaced local decision-makers in Flint, thus removing “the checks and balances and public accountability that come with public decision-making” [ 29 ]. The group also credits the public and engaged Flint citizens with continuing to question government leadership (although the Task Force noted “callous and dismissive responses to citizens’ expressed concerns”), and the media for its investigative journalism of the crisis [ 29 ]. The Task Force’s conclusion was that “Flint water customers were needlessly and tragically exposed to toxic levels of lead and other hazards through mismanagement of their drinking water supply” [ 29 ]. The Flint Water Advisory Task Force suggests that the Michigan governor should issue an executive order to mandate training and guidance on environmental justice across all state agencies, with acknowledgement that the Flint crisis of water contamination is an example of environmental injustice which has fallen on a predominantly African-American community [ 29 ]. The Task Force issued 44 recommendations to remedy the results of the failure of proper governance and resultant lead poisoning [ 29 , 30 ].

Many have spoken out about this environmental injustice, including research scientists and clinicians [ 11 , 31 , 32 , 33 ] and public health professionals [ 34 ]. Even the EPA administrator, Gina McCarthy, is speaking about how Michigan evaded the EPA regarding the Flint water crisis and how this type of disaster cannot happen elsewhere [ 34 , 35 ]. Dr. Robert Bullard, dean of the School of Public Health at Texas Southern University, calls the Flint water crisis—leading to lead exposure and poisoning with long delays in addressing the problem—a classic case of environmental racism [ 36 ]. “Environmental racism is real…so real that even having the facts, having the documentation and having the information has never been enough to provide equal protection for people of color and poor people” [ 37 ]. He continues, “It takes longer for the response and it takes longer for the recovery in communities of color and low-income communities.” [ 37 ] He explains that regional EPA officials and state officials in Michigan responded first with a cover-up, “and then defensively—either trying to avoid responsibility or minimizing the extent of the damage”, as contrasted with handling of other environmental problems in predominantly white communities [ 37 ]. An example is then given of government officials on all levels helping to clean up a spill of coal ash in Roane County, Tennessee, in a mostly white community [ 37 ]. A Democrat who represents Flint, Michigan, Representative Dan Kildee, called race “the single greatest determinant of what happened in Flint” [ 28 ]. What is the solution? Dr. Bullard suggests that real solutions will result when communities previously left out of decision-making are offered a seat at the table [ 31 ]. In order to stop unequal protection from environmental hazards, Dr. Bullard has come up with five principles he suggests government adopt to further environmental justice: “guaranteeing the right to environmental protection, preventing harm before it occurs, shifting the burden of proof to the polluters, obviating proof of intent to discriminate, and redressing existing inequities” [ 37 ]. Charles Lee, another author writing about environmental justice who worked in the Office of Environmental Justice at EPA, quotes a definition of the environment as “the place where we live, where we work, and where we play” [ 38 ]. He goes on to state that “environmental justice must be the starting point for achieving healthy people, homes, and communities” [ 38 ]. Lastly, the Flint Water Task Force elaborates on its finding of environmental injustice in the Flint case. “Environmental justice or injustice, therefore, is not about intent. Rather, it is about process and results—fair treatment, equal protection, and meaningful participation in neutral forums that honor human dignity…The facts of the Flint water crisis lead us to the inescapable conclusion that this is a case of environmental injustice. Flint residents, who are majority Black or African American and among the most impoverished of any metropolitan area in the United States, did not enjoy the same degree of protection from environmental and health hazards as that provided to other communities” [ 29 ].

The reader is referred to several references [ 1 , 2 , 3 ] for a more detailed timeline of the specific events and actions that occurred in Flint. The Flint Water Task Force report also provides a summary of its findings and recommendations, giving greater details on the specific events and actions during the switch in water supply [ 29 ]. Regardless of the motivations behind the water supply mismanagement, we must improve governmental safeguards and public health surveillance to strive to avoid such needless exposures to environmental toxicants in the future.

Another recent disaster, involving contamination of local water supplies, was that of the contamination of the Animas River in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico by mine waste from the Gold King Mine, leading to excessively high levels of some toxic elements metals including lead, arsenic and cadmium (all of these being toxic metals) [ 39 , 40 , 41 ]. The river water was subsequently off limits for agricultural use and closed for recreational use [ 39 , 42 ]. The Navajo Nation has recently expressed how difficult and problematic this poisoning of their drinking water source has been to this tribe, and that they have not been adequately reimbursed for the adverse impacts to their water source and way of life [ 43 , 44 ]. The Native American Rights Fund states that a source of clean and abundant water is hard to come by for many Native tribes and peoples and that many face health and developmental risks from environmental problems such as surface and groundwater contamination, hazardous waste disposal, illegal dumping, and mining wastes, all of which can contribute to poor quality of water [ 45 ]. As the Flint, the Navajo Nation, and the Native American Rights group exposures highlight, poor and minority communities are unfortunately too often exposed to poisonous chemicals in their neighborhoods and on their tribal lands, leading to environmental injustice [ 44 ].

Not only has the incident in Flint brought to light the contamination of Flint’s water system, it raises issues about local water supplies to towns and cities, and particularly to child care centers and school systems, around the nation [ 46 , 47 , 48 ]. This has caused our nation to focus on investigating for lead contamination in water supplies in other cities, particularly in school systems, child care centers and other places occupied by children [ 49 , 50 ]. A Huffington Post article states that the Flint water crisis has provided a wake-up call to the country with the “discovery” of poisoned water in many communities in the U.S., and that our water infrastructure is outdated and deteriorating, and that water sampling procedures for lead are also “dangerously” outdated, as they allow for 10% of the population to be exposed to levels over the EPA maximum contaminant level [ 51 ]. Some cities have been cited for their exemplary actions in keeping their city water supplies free from lead contamination [ 52 ].

Historically, the scientists in the companies that put lead in gasoline and lead in paint became aware of the dangers of those specific lead exposures, but it took much time to finally remove lead from these products; many counties banned the use of lead-based paint in residential housing before the U.S. did [ 53 , 54 ]. One author states, “Flint’s tragedy is shedding light on a health issue that’s been lurking in U.S. households for what seems like forever. But that demands the question: Why has lead poisoning never really been treated like what it is—the longest-lasting childhood-health epidemic in U.S. history?” [ 55 ]. Bliss then goes on to describe how when in the 1950s, when “millions of children had had been chronically or acutely exposed (to lead)” and this had been linked to health problems, that “If the lead industry had stepped up then (or if it had been forced to by government)”, maybe lead poisoning would have been treated like any other major childhood disease—polio, for example. In the 1950s, “Fewer than sixty thousand new cases of polio per year created a near-panic among American parents and a national mobilization that led to vaccination campaigns that virtually wiped out the disease within a decade”, write Rosner and Markowitz [ 56 ]. “With lead poisoning, the industry and federal government could have mobilized together to systemically detoxify the nation’s lead-infested housing stock, and end the epidemic right there” [ 55 ]. Bliss then goes on to describe how “the industry’s powerful leaders diverted the attention of health officials away from their products, and toward class and race” by associating childhood lead poisoning with that of a child “with ‘ignorant’ parents living in ‘slums’” [ 55 ]. Bliss goes on to state that “lead poisoning in children can be eradicated…Today the cost of detoxifying the entire nation hovers around $1 trillion, says Rosner. Any federal effort to systematically identify and remove lead from infested households would be complex, decades-long, and require ongoing policy reform. ‘But it’s also saving a next generation of children,’ Rosner says. ‘You’re actually going to stop these kids from being poisoned. And isn’t that worth something?’” [ 56 ]. “And Rosner is a tiny bit hopeful. Amid national conversation about economic inequality, a housing crisis, and the value of black and Latino lives, the attention that Flint has brought to lead might usher in the country’s first comprehensive lead-poisoning prevention program” [ 56 ].

With the information about lead contamination in Flint and many cities around the country, one might wonder whether there is a dearth of information or recommendations about how to prevent and manage childhood lead poisoning. There is not. Many authors have weighed in on this question recently [ 11 , 12 , 13 , 15 , 17 , 19 , 57 , 58 , 59 , 60 , 61 , 62 ], some with very specific plans and ideas. Primary prevention of lead exposure has been particularly emphasized in almost all of them. Landrigan and Bellinger compel us to “map the sources of lead, get the lead out, and make sure there is no new lead” [ 11 ]. Jacobs and colleagues at the National Center for Healthy Housing have started a campaign for lead exposure detection and lead poisoning prevention based on these three principles: “find it, fix it, and fund it” [ 33 ]. Some call for revised standards for lead in air, house dust, soil and water [ 12 , 61 , 62 , 63 ]. The chief causes of lead exposure are nicely summarized by Levin and colleagues [ 64 ]. Unfortunately, childhood lead poisoning prevention is often deemed to be not important enough to work on, with other pressing medical and public health problems intervening; it is also complicated, complex and involves many stakeholders. Thus, the clinicians, government officials, and public health officials looking for a quick fix and a one-prescription answer to this medical problem are often disappointed and discouraged.

Concern about the neurotoxic effects of lead has been expanded now to include the neurotoxic effects of many more new chemicals out in use by the American public, including children. Children are exposed to chemicals in their everyday lives, as these are found in toys, children’s products, personal care items such as shampoos and skin creams, on foods in the form of pesticide residues, and in the air in the form of air pollutants. Some authors have weighed in on the need for more control of the manufacture and use of these toxicants and for more research into adverse health effects [ 31 , 65 , 66 ]. In 2015, a unique group of research scientists, clinicians, government representatives, and health care advocates met to form the Project TENDR (Targeting Environmental Neurodevelopmental Risks) which focuses on engendering action to prevent exposure of fetuses, infants and children to environmental toxicants [ 67 ]. The group has created a list of five chemical classes of neurotoxins which have adverse effects on brain development. The list includes lead, specific air pollutants, organophosphate pesticides, phthalates, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), which are flame retardants. These were selected based on the degree of evidence for their adverse effects and the ability of this group and other scientists, clinicians, government officials, and advocates to work effectively to prevent exposures to these toxicants. Project TENDR has recently released a consensus statement with many signatures of both individuals and groups [ 67 , 68 , 69 ], as well as other articles on the project’s work [ 70 ]. Later this year, the group will release specific recommendations for prevention of exposure to the five chemical groups. The recent passage of the Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act has been a welcome revision and updating of the Toxic Substances Control Act promulgated by EPA in 1976 [ 71 , 72 , 73 ]. This is a step in right direction for better control of exposures to lead and other toxic chemicals in our environment.

4. Future Directions: How to Move Toward Environmental Justice

How do we remedy the situation in Flint, Michigan, and prevent future episodes similar to the Flint and Navajo Nation disasters? The Flint Water Task Force recommends that the MDHHS establish a Flint Toxic Exposure Registry to follow-up on the children and adults who were residing in Flint from April 2014 until the present, and carry out more aggressive clinical and public health follow-up for all children with elevated BLLs in the state [ 29 ]. It also recommends that routine lead screening and appropriate follow-up occur in the children’s medical homes (with the primary care provider) [ 29 ]. Additionally, the Task Force recommends that the Genesee County Health Department improve follow-up of health concerns in cooperation with the MDHHS and City of Flint “to effect timely, comprehensive, and coordinated activity and ensure the best health outcomes for children and adults affected” [ 29 ]. Dr. Hanna-Attisha has established the Flint Child Health and Development Fund which will support children and their families to obtain the optimum health and development outcomes, early childhood education, access to a pediatric medical home, improved nutrition and integrated social services [ 6 ]. The Michigan State University (MSU)/Hurley Pediatric Public Health Initiative will assess, monitor, and intervene to increase children’s readiness to succeed in school by providing the above services, along with stimulating environments and parenting education [ 6 ]. This type of close follow-up has been recommended under the Flint Recovery and Remediation section of the Flint Water Task Force, as well as a recommendation to establish a dedicated subsidiary fund in the Michigan Health Endowment Fund for funding health-related services for Flint residents [ 29 ]. Therefore, local efforts will be taken to counteract the negative consequences of exposure to lead for Flint’s children. Several recent publications support the positive effects that enriched home environments can have on cognition and behavior in both human and animal studies [ 74 , 75 , 76 ].

Secondly, government agencies at the federal, state and local level and municipal authorities will need to improve their performance to ensure environmental justice, rather than contribute toward environmental injustice. This was mandated in an Executive Order by President William Clinton which requires all federal agencies to take action to ensure environmental justice [ 77 ]. The American Academy of Pediatrics provides a good starting point regarding childhood lead exposure prevention with their recommendation that “The US EPA and HUD should review their protocols for identifying and mitigating residential lead hazards (e.g., lead-based paint, dust, and soil) and lead-contaminated water from lead service lines or lead solder and revise downward the allowable levels of lead in house dust, soil, paint, and water to conform with the recognition that there are no safe levels of lead” [ 12 ]. They also give many other recommendations for government, as well as for pediatricians and other health care providers, for reducing and preventing children’s exposure to lead. Other groups, authors and reports have weighed in on what needs to be fixed and carried out, as indicated earlier in this article. As Bellinger puts it, “We know where the lead is, how people are exposed, and how it damages health. What we lack is the political will to do what should be done” [ 32 ].

Looking at the Flint case specifically, why was the water supply switched in Flint? The evidence seems to point to financial reasons for this. In Flint, state officials decided to save money without concern for providing environmental protections for a community at well-established increased risk. This is clear injustice in environmental protection to a low income and minority community. Why weren’t the corrosion control measures implemented? The Flint Water Task Force implicates various leadership groups, including the MDEQ, MDHHS, Michigan’s Governor’s Office, State-appointed Emergency Managers, the EPA, and City of Flint, although the MDEQ and EPA seem to share most culpability [ 29 ].

5. Conclusions

In short, this crisis was the result of failures on every level. We have presented various comments about how environmental racism and injustice played into this situation. Why were the concerns and complaints about water quality from a mostly African-American community not addressed? The facts presented demonstrate that environmental injustice is the major and underlying factor involved in the events in Flint. Having a state-appointed emergency manager in charge took away the normal communication the City of Flint might have had with its residents and constituents. The Flint Water Task Force has a list of 44 recommendations, mostly directed at the various agencies and offices involved, for improving the situation and preventing further problems [ 29 ]. Much of this involves recommending that these entities seek and follow expert advice, whether on water treatment techniques or protecting the public’s health [ 29 ]. It is also imperative to rebuild relationships with Flint’s community and respond to community needs in order to make real and lasting change. Perhaps putting the Flint situation under a microscopic analysis may prevent future episodes of such environmental injustice.

We must do a better job at moving forward and preventing environmental injustice; our future work is cut out for us.

Author Contributions

The concept of the paper was developed by all of the authors. Carla Campbell performed the lead writing. Rachael Greenberg, Deepa Mankikar and Ronald Ross contributed references, edited the paper, and contributed to the revisions. All authors reviewed the article and approved the final content.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Where the Rubber Meets the Road: Opportunities to Address Tire Wear Particles in Waterways 

EPA’s Trash Free Waters (TFW) program announces the publication of  “Where the Rubber Meets the Road: Opportunities to Address Tire Wear Particles in Waterways.”  Tire wear particles as a pollutant in waterways is a relatively new field of study without standardized terminology, assessment methodologies, or established solutions. The emergence of tire wear particles as a significant category of microplastics found in waterways prompted EPA to convene stakeholders in two roundtable discussions in Spring 2022 to facilitate shared learning about the challenges of addressing the problem of tire wear particle pollution. Stakeholders represented diverse perspectives on the nature of the problem and how to effectively address it. The roundtables provided a forum for discussion among participants without committing to a specific course of action. Participants discussed a set of questions aimed at understanding the barriers to and opportunities for managing tire wear particles in waterways. This brief report summarizes the roundtable discussions. In producing it, EPA seeks to share the challenges and potential solutions discussed during the roundtables, in order to inform the public and broaden the community engaged in addressing tire wear particle pollution.

• View the Report:  Where the Rubber Meets the Road (pdf) (835 KB, April 2023, EPA-830-S-23-001)

In June 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Trash Free Waters Program convened a workshop that brought together subject matter experts (SME) in the fields of environmental monitoring, waste management, toxicology, ecological assessments, and human health assessments to discuss and summarize the risks posed by microplastics to ecological and human health (See "Microplastics Expert Workshop Report" below). The resulting workshop report outlined priority scientific information needs within four broad categories of research: Field and analytical methods; sources, transport, and fate; ecological assessments; and human health assessments.

The EPA Trash Free Waters Program has updated the 2017 Microplastics Expert Workshop (MEW) report to assist the scientific research and funding communities in identifying information gaps and emerging areas of interest within microplastics research. This report  includes a status update on the state of the science for each of the four categories listed above, informed by conversations with SMEs and a targeted review of the peer-reviewed literature.

• View the Report: A Trash Free Waters Report on Priority Microplastics Research Needs: Update to the 2017 Microplastics Expert Workshop (pdf) (2.1 MB, December 2021, EPA-842-R-21-005)

Microplastics Expert Workshop Report

The EPA Trash Free Waters program convened a Microplastics Expert Workshop (MEW) on June 28-29, 2017 to identify and prioritize the scientific information needed to understand the risks posed by microplastics to human and ecological health. The workshop gave priority to gaining greater understanding of these risks, while recognizing that there are many research gaps needing to be addressed and scientific uncertainties existing around microplastics risk management.  The workshop participants adopted a risk assessment-based approach and addressed four major topics: 1) microplastics methods, including deficits and needs; 2) microplastics sources, transport and fate; and 3) the ecological and 4) human health risks of microplastics exposure.  Workshop participants recommended developed detailed conceptual models to illustrate the fate of microplastics from source to receptor and assess the ecological and human health risks of microplastics, the degree to which information is available for each, and the interconnections among these uncertainties.  The expert panelists did not provide recommendations for specific regulatory or non-regulatory actions to be taken. This document presents a summary of the expert panel discussion.

• View the Report

Plastics have become a pervasive problem in oceans, coasts, and inland watersheds. Recent estimates suggest that 4.8 to 12.7 million metric tons of plastic waste entered the global marine environment in 2010. Areas of accumulation of plastic debris include enclosed basins, ocean gyres, and bottom sediments. Plastics in the aquatic environment primarily originate from land-based sources such as littering and wind-blown debris, though plastic debris from fishing activities may be a key source in some areas. Plastic particles are generally the most abundant type of debris encountered in the marine environment, with estimates suggesting that 60% to 80% of marine debris is plastic, and more than 90% of all floating debris particles are plastic. This document is a state-of-the-science review – one that summarizes available scientific information on the effects of chemicals associated with plastic pollution and their potential impacts on aquatic life and aquatic-dependent wildlife.

Summary of Expert Discussion Forum on Possible Human Health Risks from Microplastics in the Marine Environment

The EPA Trash Free Waters program convened a panel of scientific experts on April 23, 2014. The purpose of the forum was to discuss available data and studies on the issue of possible human health risks from microplastics in the marine environment. The participating subject matter experts were asked to provide insights on the current scientific basis for determining human health risks, based on a review of scientific research done to date. The experts also were asked to identify data gaps and make suggestions for further study. The expert panelists did not provide recommendations for specific regulatory or non-regulatory actions to be taken. This document presents a summary of the expert panel discussion.

In September 2014, EPA and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service released an initial assessment of contamination at Tern Island, a remote island in the chain of Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI). The results show that there have been releases of hazardous substances such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and lead from military wastes buried on the island between World War II and 1979, and further action is warranted.

• View the report
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Potential and health impact assessment of air pollutant emission reduction: a case study of China

• Chi, Yuanying
• Zhang, Yangyi
• Zhang, Xufeng
• Liu, Baoliu

Air pollution has become the world's largest human health and environmental risk factor. This study used the greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies model to analyze the emissions, emission reduction potential, and health impacts of atmospheric pollutants (SO 2 , NOx, and PM2.5) in 31 regions of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan). Meanwhile, the spatial aggregation of atmospheric pollutants was studied by combining the spatial autocorrelation Moran index. Research results indicate that under the background of implementing pollution control policies and advancing emission reduction technologies, the emissions of SO 2 and NOx are expected to significantly decrease by 2030, demonstrating significant potential for emission reduction. Moreover, some regions in East China, such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu, with significant emission reduction and potential, exhibit relatively high GDP and power generation. This finding also includes regions with abundant and intensive energy reserves such as Shanxi. In addition, significant agglomeration effects and spatial regional differences in atmospheric pollutant emissions are observed. The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis show that by 2030, the spatial clustering level of SO 2 emissions will be strengthened, whereas that of NOx emissions will be reduced. Furthermore, in terms of health impacts, a significant reduction in PM2.5 emissions and attributable deaths is forecasted by 2030. Among them, Guangdong Province has the highest reduction in PM2.5 attributable deaths, reaching 48,332 people, whereas Hainan Province has the highest reduction rate in PM2.5 attributable deaths, reaching 92%. Therefore, we should formulate reasonable emission reduction measures to promote high-quality economic and social development in the region.

• Emission reduction potential;
• Health impact;
• Spatial autocorrelation;
• GAINS model

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Case Studies: Creating a clean, safe environment

Accurate data is essential for monitoring and managing the environment and enabling the design and implementation of effective environmental regulation. Recognising the hazards posed by pollution, the EU has developed an extensive body of legislation which establishes health-based standards and objectives for pollutants in air, water and soil. Key to the successful implementation of these policies is an underpinning measurement infrastructure that ensures that environmental data is robust and consistent across monitoring networks, across national borders and over time.

As allowable pollutant levels decrease, and new types of pollutant are identified, measurement capabilities must be constantly improved to support robust and fit-for-purpose pollutant monitoring and mitigation. This requires both improved measurement accuracy across the measurement infrastructure – at National Measurement Institutes, in accredited laboratories and in environmental monitoring networks – and the development of innovative, practical and cost-effective measurement technologies.

New measurement capabilities to protect the marine environment

Underwater noise from man-made activity, such as shipping or construction work, can have a profound effect on marine organisms such as whales, damaging their hearing or driving them from their native habitats. European directives are in place to protect the most vulnerable species, but no validated calibration methods were available for underwater measurement instruments in the sound range of greatest environmental concern.

Download the full case study

Improving inner city air quality

Small particles from petrol and diesel engine exhausts create major hazards in city air, especially for those with asthma or other breathing problems. The EU’s Air Quality Directive requires monitoring of airborne pollution which is important for assessing the effectiveness of strategies such as London’s ultralow emission zone. Ensuring the accuracy of instruments used for measuring vehicle particle emissions in city air relies on introducing standardised aerosols and testing regimes.

Supporting the Water Framework Directive

Water pollution has a significant negative impact on human health and the environment. Increasing demand from citizens and environmental organisations for cleaner rivers and lakes, groundwater and coastal beaches has led the European Commission to make water protection one of its priorities. The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) was established to protect and improve water quality and prevent further deterioration through legal limits on a wide range of known pollutants.

Protecting Europe’s water resources

Improving the quality of indoor air

Air pollution is harmful to public health, damages biodiversity and contributes to climate change. The EU has developed legislation to improve health and environmental quality. However, while significant progress has been made in improving outdoor air quality, indoor pollutants have received less attention. Given that many people spend the majority of their time indoors, research is urgently needed to enable the regulation, assessment and improvement of indoor air quality.

Accurately measuring indoor pollutants

Many manufactured products in homes and offices, such as building materials and furnishings, can emit chemical vapours which make people feel ill. EU directives require samples of these materials to be tested to ensure emissions stay within safe limits. But this process is complex, and testing labs need more sophisticated reference materials to confirm their instruments are accurately measuring the wide variety of chemical vapours that these materials can emit.

Formaldehyde emissions monitoring

Formaldehyde, emitted from furnishing and construction materials and from the combustion of organic materials, can cause health problems. Regulations govern safe limits, and monitoring systems check these are not exceeded. Gas standards – cylinders with accurate formaldehyde amount fractions – are used to calibrate these systems, but as air quality limits become stricter, new methods are required for producing standards with lower, stable amount fractions to confirm the performance of monitoring instrumentation.

Accurately monitoring trace pollutants

Man-made and naturally occurring volatile organic compounds, such as methanol or acetone, affect air quality and the climate by the formation of ozone and aerosols. The World Meteorological Organization’s Global Atmosphere Watch monitoring network tracks these trace compounds and aerosols to increase our understanding of climate trends and the success of mitigation strategies. Improving the accuracy of networks monitoring data requires improved links between lab-based calibrations and networked instruments.

Supporting reduced exhaust emissions

Air pollution continues to be responsible for more than 430,000 premature deaths each year in Europe. Automotive vehicles are a major source of air pollution, particularly fine and ultrafine particles emitted by diesel engine exhausts. To improve public health and environmental quality the EU regulates pollution from road vehicles.All new passenger cars must meet European emission standards for particle number (defined in the Euro 5b and Euro 6b regulations) before they can be type approved for sale in the EU.

Measuring roadside air pollution

Air pollution, such as that generated by road vehicles, is known to harm public health, damage biodiversity and contribute to climate change. In response, Europe has made air pollution one of its main concerns and developed an extensive body of legislation, establishing limit values for major air pollutants such as NO 2 and particulate matter, to improve human health and environmental quality.

Improved air pollution monitoring

Air pollution, such as that generated by road vehicles, is known to harm public health, damage biodiversity and contribute to climate change. In response, the EU has made air pollution one of its main concerns and developed an extensive body of legislation to improve human health and environmental quality. Central to this regulatory framework is the European Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC), which establishes limit values for major air pollutants such as NO 2 and particulate matter.

Improved exhaust monitoring

Air pollution continues to be responsible for more than 430,000 premature deaths each year in Europe. Automotive vehicles are a major source of air pollution - of particular concern are the fine particles emitted by diesel and direct injection petrol engines. To improve public health and environmental quality, the EU regulates pollution from road vehicles and new passenger cars must meet the European emission standards (the standard currently in force is known as Euro 6 ) before they can be type approved.

Improving gas plant leak detection

Supporting global efforts to reduce greenhouse and polluting gas emissions, the EU’s Industrial Emissions Directive introduces new limits and reporting rules. Europe’s gas plant operators are expected to identify and measure leaks, but tougher limits require greater measurement accuracy beyond that of current authorised methods. Advanced optical measurement techniques exist but these need robust performance evaluation and protocols for use before consideration as methods for demonstrating compliance with the Directive.

Industrial emissions mapping

The EU’s Industrial Emissions Directive, which aims to protect human health and the environment, requires pollution reporting from oil and gas plant operators against regulated emissions limits. Strict standards are being established for monitoring total plant emissions, but current measurement techniques lack the required accuracy to meet new lower emission limits. Optical measurement techniques can meet requirements, but to be authorised for use, must first be rigorously validated.

Traceability for mercury measurements

Mercury, a highly toxic metal, can be released into the environment from human sources. European and international treaties are in force to limit its emission, introducing the need for reliable mercury monitoring. Cheap and easy to use sensors that can be deployed anywhere in the world and capable of operating without power supplies are needed for monitoring atmospheric mercury levels.

Better digestion for mercury analysis

Mercury is highly toxic and once released into the environment bioaccumulates into fish and seafood. Released from burning fossil fuels and broken fluorescent light fittings its emissions are regulated by international treaties and EU Directives. For industrial polluters to demonstrate regulatory compliance mercury emissions are carefully monitored. But the continuing use of an empirical equation for calibration and non-optimised chemical analysis methods hinder a robust measurement hierarchy.

Detecting contaminants in soil

Companies building on sites contaminated by previous industrial use, must first perform soil analyses to identify pollutants. Measurement traceability is underpinned by reference materials that need to closely match real-world samples. Increasing the capability of National Metrology Institutes (NMI) in emerging EU member states to produce these materials and perform proficiency exercises is essential to harmonise SI traceability in environmental monitoring throughout Europe.

Detecting new pollutants in the air

Atmospheric greenhouse gases are driving global warming. Amongst the most damaging are those containing fluorine and other halogens, frequently used as refrigerants. Per molecule, these are many times more potent than carbon dioxide. Whilst international treaties regulate many of these gases, new variants are continually entering use. To determine their source and atmospheric trends, networks of monitoring instruments need robust calibration standards for measurement accuracy.

Monitoring ammonia

Ammonia is a harmful pollutant, which damages ecosystems, harms human health and contributes to global warming. The EU has set targets for its reduction and introduced Directives for its regulation, verifying compliance requires accurate ammonia sensors that do not interact with the gas they measure. Improved material test and calibration facilities with robust links to SI units are needed to support the development of sensors based on ammonia inert materials.

Ammonia monitoring networks

Agriculture is responsible for 94 % of all ammonia emissions, 75 % of which is from intensive livestock farming, contributing to wide-ranging environmental problems. The EU’s National Emission Ceilings Directive sets ammonia reduction goals, and the UK is developing strategies to support farmers to reduce emissions. To assess their effectiveness and track reductions against targets, with high measurement accuracy are needed.

Greater accuracy for ammonia monitors

Ammonia is a harmful pollutant produced by intensive farming which damages ecosystems. Monitoring networks assess environmental ammonia levels and the success of strategies for meeting EU emissions targets. Performing spot checks and ensuring test exercises supply specified ammonia concentrations to the samplers used requires accurate real-time measurements. Optical gas measurement technologies could provide these, but first ways to compensate for effects created by water vapour in the sample are needed.

Monitoring exposure to UV radiation

The World Health Organization estimates that a 10 % increase in surface UV radiation could cause an additional 300,000 skin cancers and at least 1.6 million more cases of cataracts worldwide every year. Balancing the risks and benefits of solar UV radiation is a challenge for policymakers and health advisors, and improved UV measuring instrumentation is needed to produce reliable measurements on which to identify long-term trends and base decisions.

Better optics for UV monitoring

The ozone layer protects us from the harmful effects of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, such as increased incidences of skin cancer and cataracts. International treaties such as the Montreal Protocol have been put in place to reduce the use of ozone depleting chemicals such as CFCs. Changes in ozone and UV radiation are monitored across Europe to improve understanding of the recovery of the ozone layer and the effects of UV exposure.

Fingerprinting nuclear waste

Nuclear power accounts for more than a quarter of the EU’s electricity supply and will continue to play a major role in the energy sector as Europe tries to meet growing energy demands while reducing carbon emissions. Over the next 25 years, around 250 nuclear facilities across Europe are scheduled for decommissioning. To protect public health and the environment, the millions of tonnes of waste generated needs to be sorted and appropriately stored according to the level of radioactive contamination.

Download the full case study  

Nuclear incident alerts

In the event of a nuclear incident, authorities need to know how to respond to protect the public. A pan-European monitoring network, using Geiger-Mueller counters, stands ready to detect sudden increases in ionising radiation. These counters measure radiation levels accurately, but cannot distinguish between different photon energies, originating from different radionuclide. Modern instruments can make this distinction but need better characterisation before they can be deployed in monitoring networks.

Fibre-optics for structural integrity

Ensuring the integrity of large nuclear structures such as waterways supplying coolant or geological disposal facilities for high level long lived radioactive waste is important for our safety and that of the environment. Temperature measurements based on optical sensing could provide key information on long-term structural integrity but generating confidence in a monitoring system that will operate for tens of years relies on rigorous testing of all its constituent parts.

More information

• Highlights from Environment projects
• Environment projects
• Case Studies: Understanding Climate Change
• Metrology for Environment
• Metrology for Society's Challenges

ESPR chronicles: unveiling environmental and pollution science trends across time

• Open access
• Published: 03 June 2024
• Volume 2 , article number  59 , ( 2024 )

Cite this article

You have full access to this open access article

• Saurabh Prajapati   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4805-0344 1 &
• Chintan Pandya   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4930-9709 2  

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Explore all metrics

This study explores current research trends in environmental studies, emphasizing the importance of addressing climate change through effective strategies and highlighting the crucial role of circular economy principles and resource management in achieving sustainability goals. It aims to investigate emerging patterns and analyze the altmetric impact of published research in the field of environment and pollution. Environmental Science and Pollution Research (ESPR), a research journal published by Springer since January 1994, serves as a cornerstone for scholarly discourse in this field. The first volume of ESPR was released in January 1994, and since then, all of the information has been indexed by significant databases like OCLC WorldCat Discovery Service, SCOPUS, and DIMENSIONS, amongst others. ESPR is one of the leading journals with a five-year impact factor of 5.4 and 1.01 SJR Q1 quartile as of 2023, with an h-index of 179. The journal has published influential articles that garnered high altmetric scores, indicating online attention and engagement, although there is a notable disparity between altmetric scores and total citations. Most of the highly cited articles cover various topics, including eutrophication, electrochemical advanced oxidation processes, insecticides, and phytoremediation. Most publications fall under environmental sciences, followed by pollution and contamination. Chinese institutions have substantially contributed to the journal, indicating a strong emphasis on environmental and pollution research in China. Our findings reveal significant growth in publication output and citation rates, alongside a notable disparity between traditional citation metrics and altmetrics, underscoring the need for comprehensive impact assessment methodologies.

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1 Introduction

Researchers have recently prioritized the environment and sustainability due to the significance and widespread distribution of the UN's 2015 SDG report. Despite scientific and technical innovations, human beings are completely dependent on everything, like nature, shelter, water, air, food, and energy, to stay healthy. Environmental science is a multidisciplinary field and discourses on how humans interact with nature’s living and nonliving objects. It deals with biology, chemistry, geology, climate, economics, humanities, philosophy, and social science. The primary goals of environmental science research are to discover how life on Earth survives, to comprehend how humans can interact with nature, to find solutions to problems, and to ensure sustainability. Ecology, organisms, species, ecosystems, and environmentalism through sustainable living are some of the most essential parts of the domain (Miller & Spoolman, 2013) [ 21 ].

For almost a century, ecosystems have been deteriorating and are under high threat. Researchers worldwide are advocating for the preservation, conservation, and development of sustainable actions to save the environment through various research and case studies of different countries. Environmental issues are challenging to resolve as there are uncertainties about scientific activities, and it takes longer to overcome environmental effects (Balint) [ 7 ]. As a direct result of the research and discoveries generated via publishing in this sector, the world gained a greater understanding of the issue and evidence-based solutions. Academicians, scientists, and researchers play an essential role in safeguarding the future generation by advocating policies, regulations, and action.

While numerous journals contribute to environmental research, this study focuses on ESPR, a prominent publication in the field. ESPR has played a pivotal role in advancing environmental science discourse for nearly three decades, addressing critical issues ranging from climate change to pollution mitigation. The choice to examine ESPR specifically stems from its longstanding influence and comprehensive coverage of environmental topics. Bibliometric and altmetric analyses serve as valuable tools in this endeavour, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of ESPR's influence over its three-decade history. By examining publication trends, citation patterns, and online engagement with ESPR articles, we aim to gain insights into the journal's reach and significance within the scientific community. This approach not only provides valuable information for researchers and policymakers but also underscores the importance of rigorous impact assessment methodologies in the field of environmental science.

As of 2022, ESPR has an impact factor of 5.8 and a 5-year impact factor of 5.4. The impact factor of 5.8 for the year 2022 reflects the average number of citations received by articles published in ESPR in the previous two years, while the 5-year impact factor of 5.4 represents the average citations over the past five years. These metrics underscore ESPR's significance and influence in the field of environmental science and pollution research. According to Scimago Journal & Country Rank 2024, Environmental Science and Pollution Research (ESPR) has an h-index of 179. This indicates that there are at least 179 papers published in ESPR that have each received at least 179 citations. The h-index reflects the impact and productivity of the journal, signifying the number of highly cited papers within its publication history. Each paper cited in ESPR has been referenced by at least 179 other papers, underscoring the journal’s influence within the scientific community ( Environmental Science and Pollution Research , n.d.) [ 14 ]. The editorial board may consider publishing a special anniversary issue to celebrate the thirty glorious years of ESPR that may include some classic papers published in the history of ESPR.

2 Literature review

The method of bibliometric analysis of the statistical information of the publication has gained enormous popularity in the field of scientific research. The method helps analyze large volumes of statistical data into various summaries. It helps discover emerging trends in scholarly publication, performance, collaboration patterns, and research constituents of published materials. The first bibliometric analysis was conducted in early 1950 (Donthu et al.) [ 13 ].

Researchers are actively promoting their datasets and research via various social media networks. It enables them to have conversations on a variety of subjects. It increases people's knowledge of their magazine, much like social media enables people to connect on various platforms. According to a recent survey, academics increasingly turn to social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook as viable sites to disseminate information about their work and encourage participation. Twitter, the second most extensive social media network for microblogging, has become a popular site for promoting scientific articles (Appel et al., 2020) [ 4 ].

Academic productivity has been steadily increasing all around the globe. The impact factor of the document is used to scale the relevance of the published document, and it can be measured using the document's citations. The reliability of article citations is doubtful and has consequences, such as the slow process of determining which articles are genuinely influential. Because of the considerable amount of time that must pass before the relevance of the articles can be determined, an alternative metric scale, such as Altmetric, is necessary (Warren et al.) [ 32 ].

It was in the year 2010 that Jason Priem originally introduced the word “altmetrics” (Priem) [ 24 ]. Since then, it has become an increasingly popular method for measuring the real-time reach and impact of academic publications.

It has achieved widespread usage to identify previously unknown and unreported academic impact measures of research, and its use has caused it to get widespread attention. The scores of alternative metrics are essential because they supplement conventional metrics and indicators (Bornmann and Haunschild) [ 10 ].

Analysis of bibliographic data for various topics is a prevalent technique often carried out on databases, journals, and themes. A significant number of bibliometric studies have been conducted to determine the patterns of research articles found in general journals. Future research was emphasized based on the study on ‘Journal of Intellectual Capital’ (Dabić et al.) [ 11 ], the 50 years publication journey of European Management Journal was analyzed using a bibliometric study (Martínez-López et al.) [ 20 ] through the exploration of forty years of publication history of the European Journal of Operational Research (Laengle et al.) [ 19 ]—all these were few examples of the bibliometric study of complete journals. Altmetric studies are also becoming popular nowadays; ‘Retina’ related top 100 articles were analyzed using an altmetric study and scores of social media impact (Sener and Polat) [ 26 ]; in a similar study, the top 100 most cited media-related articles were analyzed using altmetric scores (Moon et al.) [ 22 ].

Based on the scientific literature analysis and analyzing the gaps in previous research, the researchers concluded that no other studies comparable to this one had been conducted. This article provides an in-depth and comprehensive study of the journal ESPR over the past 29 years and suggests potential research topics for the upcoming years. For a good number of years to come, this study will be able to inspire future authors and spur research that leads to important discoveries.

3 Methodology

This study adheres to a well-defined methodological framework in bibliometrics, as outlined by as outlined by Donthu et al. [ 13 ]. By following this structured approach, the research ensures a systematic and rigorous methodology. The methodological framework is presented in Fig.  1 , which is introduced and discussed in the subsequent sections.

The Research Design [based on (Donthu et al.)] [ 13 ]

3.1 Research design

In this research, a quantitative approach was employed to investigate the altmetric and bibliometric trends of the ESPR Journal over twenty-nine years. The study aimed to collect, analyze, and visualize relevant data to gain insights into the journal's impact and influence within the scientific community.

To guide the design of this study, inspiration was drawn from the pioneering work of Priem, Piwowar, and Hemminger (Priem et al.) [ 25 ], who introduced altmetric as a novel method for assessing the online attention garnered by scholarly articles.

3.2 Data collection

To ensure the robustness of our study, we implemented rigorous data collection procedures, drawing from established academic databases. The reliability and credibility of the literature data source are fundamental aspects of altmetric and bibliometric analysis. This study collected altmetric data such as the highest altmetric attention score, Mendeley readers, tweeters, and Facebook wall links, among others, from the Altmetric Explorer and Google Colab using Python Script. This altmetric analysis provided comprehensive insights into the online popularity and dissemination of academic articles, adhering to the optimal practices proposed by Priem, Piwowar, and Hemminger for evaluating the social impact of scholarly publications. Similarly, bibliometric data, including article titles, authors, publication years, citation counts, and affiliations, was sourced from the reputed Scopus database.

The researchers have ensured the quality and standard protocols of bibliographical information while extracting data. By leveraging the respected database and its new platforms, we aimed to establish a strong foundation for our study. Moreover, to guide our bibliometric analysis methodology, we referred to the articles by (Aria and Cuccurullo) [ 5 ] and (Donthu et al.) [ 13 ], which bespeaks a comprehensive overview of bibliometric analysis and application of different methods review research. These articles also offer valuable insights and a handful of guidelines for conducting bibliometric studies, contributing to the methodological rigor of our research.

The data downloaded process was carried out in June 2023, and in total 38,790 had been published in ESPR between the year 1994 until December 2022. The study employed a bibliometric approach, utilizing quantitative techniques to analyze bibliometric data sourced primarily from the Scopus abstract and citation database. It is important to note that accessing the total published list from this source requires academic subscription access from Elsevier. For generating the retrospective data, we used the following search strategy and we used two other advanced search strategies to ensure the accuracy and validity of our data.

SRCTITLE(“Environmental Science and Pollution Research”).

SOURCE-ID (23918)

(ISSN(“0944–1344”) OR ISSN(“1614–7499”))

In order to achieve the objectives of this research, we refined the data by excluding the total list of articles published in 2023. After limiting the search results, we found 32,961 titles for the final analysis. The final results were then exported by selecting “Citation Information,” “Bibliographical Information”, and “Abstracts and Keywords” in BibTex format. Due to voluminous data, we prepared three different BibTex files and merged them using the Texmaker (version 5.1.4) cross-platform LaTex editor software. Duplicate entries were removed, and the final BibTex file provided comprised of 32,632 records that provided detailed information on each published article’s characteristics, enabling authors to conduct a quantitative analysis using R 4.3.1 Software’s bibliometrix package and its Biblioshiny web interface (Abafe et al. [ 1 ]; Zupic and Čater) [ 35 ].

3.3 Data analysis

The present study used two different tools to achieve its objective:

3.3.1 Altmetric analysis

We conducted a detailed analysis of the altmetric data to examine the online presence and visibility of ESPR articles. This involved calculating various altmetric indicators, including the total number of mentions, shares on social media platforms, and downloads.

3.3.2 Bibliometric analysis

This study focuses solely on critical aspects of the bibliometric analysis of a specific journal. Based on the literature study and research gap, it has been found that bibliometric study on the individual source or publication title has been carried out in various prestigious journals, and the current studies have applied the same analysis methods to evaluate the publication impact of ESPR. This type of in-depth bibliometric analysis provided an in-depth understanding of the journal's evolution and status in the academic community. To evaluate the bibliometric features of the prestigious ESPR Journal, we conducted a thorough bibliometric analysis in R-Studio version 4.3.1 using the open-source Biblioshiny package. We examined important bibliometrics indicators such as citation patterns, co-authorship trends, affiliations, trends topics, and country-level analysis using Biblioshiny software to achieve our primary goal.

In conclusion, this bibliometric analysis offered an in-depth view of the ESPR's development over a while and its current position within the academic community, offering helpful recommendations for enhancing its scholarly impact and promoting continued growth in the ever-evolving research landscape.

4 Research result and discussion

The journal started its first publication in the year 1994, and a total of 32,632 documents have been published as of 31 December 2022. This includes Research Articles, Reviews, Conference Papers, Letters, Short Surveys, Editorials and Notes.

The illustrious history of the ESPR Journal is depicted in Fig.  2 , and its significance is succinctly summarized in Table  1 . ESPR has published an impressive total of 32,632 documents from 1994 to 2022; this encompasses research articles, conference papers, editorials, reviews, and other scholarly contributions. This vast and diverse collection reflects the journal's unwavering commitment to disseminating cutting-edge research findings within the scientific community. Notably, the annual growth rate of ESPR stands at an impressive 17.98%, underscoring its increasing significance and impact within the scientific realm.

Summary—Twenty-Nine Years’ Publications of ESPR

Furthermore, the average age of documents within the journal is 4.72 years, and each publication receives an average of 18.43 citations, highlighting the timeliness and influence of the research output of ESPR. ESPR's broad coverage across a wide range of subjects is evident from the usage of 27,071 Keywords Plus (ID) and 68,884 instances of Author's Keywords throughout its publications. This showcases the depth and diversity of topics addressed within this esteemed journal. ESPR fosters a collaborative environment, with an average of 5.14 collaborative authors per publication and a 27.71% international co-authorship. This data supports the conclusion that ESPR encourages authors to collaborate and engage in fruitful partnerships to advance scientific knowledge.

This distinguished journal curates a comprehensive collection and fosters collaborative research and international cooperation among scholars. ESPR has successfully attracted 68,088 authors who have made valuable contributions to its publications, showcasing the journal's ability to pool a diverse range of expertise. Notably, while a majority of publications involve multiple authors, there exists a minority of single authors, with 734 individuals preferring independent research endeavours. Remarkably, the average number of co-authors per publication stands at 5.14, indicating the extent of collaborative efforts. It is important to note that while this figure suggests multiple authors per document, further investigation is needed to discern the nature of collaboration. For instance, these co-authors may belong to distinct research teams or disciplines, highlighting the interdisciplinary nature of research published in ESPR.

Furthermore, international collaboration is a prominent feature, with an average of 27.71 countries represented in co-authored publications. Such extensive international collaboration underscores the journal's role as a platform for fostering global scientific cooperation and addressing pressing environmental challenges through interdisciplinary research endeavours. In a nutshell, the collaborative and international nature of the research published in ESPR enhances the breadth and significance of its contributions to the field.

4.1 Growth of publication

Figure  3 reveals the incremental growth in Total Publications (TP) from 1994 till 2022. Interestingly, in the first few years of publication, ESPR primarily published in two digits 65 to 75 articles from 1994 until 2006. In the first 15 years, the journal published 930 papers with an average of 62 papers each year. The profound steep growth in TP was noticed in 2012 (n = 430), a year that experienced a growth of 150 percent in TP as compared to the previous year (n = 172). However, there were occasional declines in publication numbers in certain years. These declines may be attributed to various factors, such as shifts in research focus, changes in editorial policies, or fluctuations in the availability of funding and resources. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend indicates an identical increase in articles published in the ESPR journal in recent years, highlighting its rising popularity and significance in the field. Factors like technological advancements, heightened awareness of environmental issues, and the journal's well-established reputation and impact are responsible for this astounding increase in publications.

Source: Own elaboration based on Scopus data [last accessed on 2023 June 28]

Annual Growth of Publication.

4.2 Average citation count per year

The average annual citation analysis of the ESPR journal provides valuable information about how frequently published research is cited by peers working in the environment. Hence, it aids us in gaining a deeper comprehension of the journal's influence and significance in environmental science and pollution research.

Table 2 provides insights into the citation trends of ESPR over the years. Initially, from 1994 to the late 1990s, the average citations per year were relatively modest, starting at 0.43 citations per year in 1994 and gradually increasing to 1.04 in 1997. A significant surge in average citations occurred in the early 2000s, with values consistently exceeding 1 and peaking at 2.39 in 2003. Notably, the year 2019 saw the highest average citations per year, with 3.99 citations, while the lowest was recorded in 2022, with 2.60 citations. Despite fluctuations, the journal's average annual citations consistently remained above 2, indicating its enduring impact. These findings shed light on the evolving influence and visibility of ESPR within the scientific community.

4.3 Three field plot analysis of ESPR journal

The in-depth examination of the three-field network connection plot is essential to elucidate, as it can display three distinct correlations between the elements displayed in the visualization. Figure  4 illustrates the three-field plot, which includes affiliation, country, and author. All three elements are depicted in grey, illustrating the relationship between a single field, beginning with affiliation, country, and top author. The rectangle size in each list indicates the number of articles associated with a particular element. The middle field of the three-field plot is the focus of the analysis.

Co-Relations Network between Affiliations, Countries and Authors

AU_CO represents the country, which indicates that the top country is the focus (the primary concern), associated with the AU_UN as affiliations and AU as authors. The information on the most productive authors, their affiliated organizations and countries, can be obtained using the rectangle sizes for each of the considered components. This graph is generated considering 10 countries, 10 authors, and 10 affiliations. It can be summarized that the most productive affiliations i.e. Uni. of Chinese Academy of Sc., Zhejiang Uni., Chinese Academy of Sciences, and China Uni. of Geosciences are from China and their productive authors are Zhang Y., Wang Y. and Li Y from China only.

4.4 Most prominent documents with most altmetric score

Table 3 presents the top 10 articles with the highest Altmetric scores, along with their respective citation counts. The examination of Altmetric Attention Scores (AAS) alongside citation counts for prominent scholarly articles provides valuable insights into the dynamics of online engagement and academic impact within the scholarly community.

The top-ranking articles, as indicated by their high Altmetric scores, reveal interesting patterns of online attention compared to traditional citation-based metrics. Articles such as that authored by Paul Kay in 2018 exhibit noticeable online visibility, denoted by a notable AAS, alongside moderate citation rates. This phenomenon underscores the significant role of social media platforms and digital dissemination channels in enhancing scholarly visibility, although without matching citation accumulation.

Conversely, articles originating from the years 2015 and 2016 exhibit a diverse pattern. While some show substantial citation rates along with elevated AAS, others demonstrate a noticeable difference between online engagement metrics and scholarly impact. This difference suggests a complex interplay of variables, including thematic relevance and media coverage, in influencing the dissemination and reception of scholarly works.

These observations highlight the importance of integrating conventional citation-based metrics with alternative indicators such as Altmetric scores to provide a comprehensive assessment of research impact in contemporary scholarly environments.

4.5 Distribution of high altmetric score

The altmetric scores are collected through social media sites and research-sharing platforms such as Mendeley, Twitter, Facebook, citation blogs, news feeds, wikis, and gPlus. Figure  5 shows the representation of altmetric scores in each social media platform and found that most Mendeley reference management tools are among the top platforms where research articles were discussed. Twitter stood second among the rest of the platforms.

Distribution of Altmetric Score of Top 10 Articles

4.6 Top 10 highly cited articles and their altmetric score

The list of the top 10 most globally cited articles from the journal ESPR during its 29 years of publication is displayed in Table  4 . These articles are considered the most influential publications in ESPR between 1994 and 2022. This table includes the year the articles were published, the total number of citations obtained by the documents, and their altmetric ratings. The first document, published in 2003, which achieved a score of 13 on altmetric, had a maximum of 1599 citations. The item at rank five earned a score of 319 on altmetric, while the article at rank three scored 255. These two articles tied for the highest score out of the ten. The remaining articles have all received an altmetric score lower than 15. This demonstrates that documents with many citations get less attention and discussion on internet platforms.

4.7 Authors’ production over the period

The illustration in Fig.  6 displays the productivity of the top ten authors over time, regarding the number of articles produced and the total number of citations received per year. The graph's bubbles represent the number of articles each author published. A darker bubble within a specific year indicates the author's peak productivity. According to the graph, the years between 2018 and 2022 were the most productive for most authors.

Authors’ Production Over the Period

4.8 Corresponding author’s country

The research investigation employed the MCP (Multiple Country Publications) and SCP (Single Country Publications) measures to assess the collaborative research dynamics among authors from diverse countries in the context of the ESPR Journal. Figure  7 depicts the primary countries of origin of the corresponding authors and provides insights into the nature of their research collaborations, differentiating between collaborations within the same country and collaborations involving researchers from other countries.

Corresponding Author’s Countries

The analysis reveals that China and India are the most prolific contributors to the ESPR Journal, with Brazil and Iran following suit. However, the MCP ratio, which signifies collaborations among authors from the same country, remains relatively low for these four countries, ranging from 0.20 to 0.25. Intriguingly, authors from France and Pakistan exhibit a higher propensity for collaboration, as evidenced by their MCP ratios of 0.36 and 0.51, respectively. Overall, these findings underscore the considerable untapped potential for fostering international collaboration among prospective authors of the ESPR Journal.

4.9 Most cited countries

Between 1994 and 2022, research papers published in ESPR originated from 126 countries worldwide. Figure  8 depicts the total number of citations from different countries for the articles published in ESPR.

Global Trends of the Most Cited Countries

China stands out at the top of the list with the highest number of citations, totaling 189,720, and an average citation rate of 16.2 per article. Following closely behind, India demonstrates productivity with 51,568 publications and an average article citation of 19.2. Pakistan and Iran also contribute significantly, with 23,175 and 19,289 publications, respectively. Among the top 10 most productive countries, Germany achieves the highest average citation per publication, reaching an impressive 26.2 against a total of 15,454 citations.

4.10 Affiliation Production Over the Period

Figures  9 and 10 display the primary research entities based on the frequency of published articles from 1994 to 2022.

Affiliation Production Over the Period

Prominent Affiliations

Notably, Zhejiang University (564 publications) and the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (535 publications) emerged as the most prominent and consistently influential universities throughout the study period. Additionally, the following institutions demonstrate notable contributions: Kind Saud University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tongji University, and China University of Geosciences, among others. The findings indicate that Chinese affiliations have emerged as dominant contributors to research productivity in the Environmental Science and Pollution Research Journal.

We examine the citation network analysis by country with a citation threshold value of 5 and again the top 50 most representative connections. The findings shown in Fig.  11 depict that China is the highest contributor in this journal and has a strong citation network with other countries such as Germany, India, Spain, Italy, France, and many more.

Citation Network Analysis

4.11 Trend topics

Figure  12 presents a visualization where the bubbles and lines represent the noteworthy terms or keywords extensively studied from 1994 to 2022. The size of each bubble reflects the frequency of the term's appearance in publications during that time frame, with more giant bubbles indicating more frequent mentions. Furthermore, the length of the lines connecting the bubbles indicates the duration spent discussing each topic. This visualization provides insights into the prominence and time dedicated to various research areas over the specified period.

Trending Topics

The “China” term had the largest bubble size and became popular after 2018, with 14,935 documents. “environmental monitoring” was the second most popular term in 2016, with 12156 documents. Through a comprehensive examination of the prevailing trends over the past three years, valuable insights can be gleaned regarding the dynamic shifts within academic interests and the subjects that have garnered substantial attention during this period. This analysis facilitates a deeper understanding of the trajectory of scholarly focus, elucidating the specific domains that have emerged as primary subjects of study and research in recent years.

From 2019 to 2022, an analysis of the most frequently employed authors’ terms reveals an array of significant topics, including “animals,” “adsorption,” “humans,” “China,” “carbon emission,” “economic development,” “carbon dioxide,” “policy,” “investment,” and “COVID-19.” This assortment exemplifies the diverse thematic scope that has engendered noteworthy scholarly exploration, underscoring the multidisciplinary nature of contemporary research.

By delving into the trends associated with these critical terms, researchers can ascertain the prominent domains of inquiry and align their investigations with the prevailing academic currents. Moreover, this analytical approach unveils salient societal and global issues, such as environmental concerns, economic development paradigms, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, all of which have assumed significant prominence within the scholarly landscape during the specified timeframe.

4.12 Distribution of major funding agencies

The research documents by funding sponsors reveal several vital observations. Table 5 reveals that China emerges as a prominent player in scientific research, with funding agencies such as the National Natural Science Foundation and the National Key Research and Development Program supporting many projects.

Brazil's Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) also demonstrate a commitment to scientific advancement. In the UK, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities support fundamental research conducted by central universities. European funding agencies contribute to European research initiatives, including the European Commission and the European Regional Development Fund. Portugal's Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) and India's Department of Science and Technology/Ministry of Science and Technology reflect national investment in research and development. These findings highlight the diverse research funding landscape across countries, focusing on specific environmental issues, pollution, and allied disciplines.

4.13 Occurrences of author’s keywords

Figure  13 represents the Author’s Keywords cloud for the articles published in ESPR from 1994 to 2022.

a Author’s Keyword Cloud. b Tree map

The above visualization Fig.  13 a results from analyzing the co-occurrence patterns of author keywords, which serves as a valuable tool for understanding the impact and popularity of specific keywords. Researchers in the future can leverage the usage of highly cited keywords, as they tend to garner rapid global attention compared to less frequently cited ones. Notably, keywords such as “heavy metals,” “adsorption,” and “oxidative stress” emerge as noteworthy focal points within the visualized keyword network. When combined with topics such as the environment, groundwater, bioavailability, and carbon emissions, these terms hold significant potential for unearthing novel insights and establishing new relationships in scientific research.

In Fig.  13 b, TreeMap analysis of 50 primary Keyword Plus terms reveals the same prominence of heavy metals, adsorption, and oxidative stress. These terms, extracted from article titles, aid in identifying key concepts and their origins in the SCOPUS database. By incorporating these influential keywords and terms into their studies, researchers can tap into existing knowledge, build upon established research trends, and potentially make meaningful contributions to the field. Furthermore, the analysis of keyword co-occurrence patterns can aid in identifying emerging research directions and highlighting areas where further exploration and investigation are warranted. Therefore, it is recommended that future researchers consider these highly cited keywords and their associations with relevant topics as a starting point for their investigations. Such an approach can facilitate discovering new phenomena, identifying research gaps, and expanding scientific knowledge within their respective domains of study.

4.14 Topic recommendation for future research

To address recommendations for future research, a careful examination of the sub-topic positions on the thematic map becomes essential. The thematic map, alternatively referred to as a strategic map, effectively organizes authors’ keywords into distinct clusters and visually represents their centrality along the X-axis and progression along the Y-axis. Notably, four core clusters emerged throughout the entire study period, with each quadrant occupied by one of the two primary clusters. Figure  14 succinctly portrays the thematic map's composition, encompassing these four primary quadrants.

Thematic map of research

The first quadrant, located in the upper right of the thematic map, comprises highly relevant (centrality) and well-developed (density) motor themes. These research topics, namely “metabolism”, “soil”, and “soil pollutants”, have received the highest total citations, indicating their significance within the knowledge domain. They possess potential as influential areas for future research trends. It is also evident that the upper-right and lower-right quadrants exhibit notable progress. These quadrants emphasize the domains of “Human” and “environmental and monitoring”, which have become pivotal in shaping the research landscape. These areas of study continue to dominate the field and hold substantial significance.

The second quadrant, positioned in the top left of the thematic map, is associated with niche themes characterized by a high degree of density but a relatively low degree of centrality. Within this quadrant, the cluster primarily revolves around animals and toxicity. Notably, research on “animals” and “toxicity” has garnered less attention than studies examining humans and toxicity. The themes within this quadrant exhibit a lower degree of centrality, possibly indicating their emergence as relatively novel areas of inquiry with limited citation impact.

The third quadrant in the lower left of the thematic map represents emerging or declining research topics with limited centrality and density. These include “carbon dioxide”, “economic development”, “carbon emissions”, “air pollutants”, and “China”. The authors argue that these topics are not diminishing; instead, they are gaining prominence as areas of study. Specifically, research on “carbon dioxide” has emerged as a subject of interest in 2021, with China being a focal point.

The fourth quadrant in the lower right of the thematic map represents the primary theme quadrant. It includes research topics of high relevance but limited development. These themes are significant across multiple research areas. Two main clusters are present in this quadrant. The first cluster focuses on chemical and water pollutants with higher relevance and development. The second cluster revolves around “environmental monitoring” and is primarily influenced by the topics of “chemical” and “water pollutants”.

5 Conclusion

In 1994, the first edition of ESPR was published with 19 unique pieces of content. Since then, the number of publications has skyrocketed, and by 2022, ESPR has amassed over 32,632 documents, making it a veritable treasure trove of scholarly resources. This journey has witnessed several outstanding research works in areas related to environmental science and allied subjects, with a particular emphasis on chemical compounds. These contributions have been a tremendous aid in expanding concerns related to the environment and pollution research. In 2024, ESPR had completed three decades of its glorious journey. To celebrate the anniversary and to draw attention to this journal's invaluable service to the academic community, this study analyzed the overall research output through bibliometric and altmetric retrospective analysis.

The study findings demonstrate that ESPR has established its footprint as a leading journal covering cutting-edge research at the intersection of environmental monitoring, chemistry, water pollutants, chemicals, soil pollutants, and metabolism. Unlike other top research journals, ESPR journals consistently grow in the number of publications each decade. Especially after 2014, the journal showed an outstanding performance in its number of publications and annual citation growth. According to the SCOPUS database, 562 papers of ESPR have more than 100 citations. Secondly, more than 39 papers on ESPR have more than 100 altmetric scores. However, the gap between the altmetric scores and the total number of citations is enormous. The article entitled “Eutrophication of freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems: A global problem”, published in 2003, is the most cited article of ESPR. Thirdly,  Figs.  7 and 8  reveals the diversity in the contribution of countries across the globe. The contribution of China is unmatched, whereas the contribution of India and other countries is also remarkable. Fourthly, “Lotfi Aleya”, a Frenchman, tops the list of most prolific authors according to the SCOPUS research database, having authored or co-authored 124 works. The temporal analysis demonstrates the dominance of Chinese institutions throughout all decades.

This work provides a comprehensive synopsis of the publication of ESPR journal with the help of quantity and quality indicators such as incremental growth in the number of articles, citations received by the papers, an overview of the h-index, and altmetric attention score of papers published in the ESPR journal. This first-of-its-kind bibliometric and altmetric study might be helpful for the research community that intends to contribute to environmental science and pollution research areas. This paper can also help journal editors evaluate ESPR’s track record of publishing field studies to inform future directions. Furthermore, the editorial board of this journal may also use this study’s findings to evaluate ESPR’s track record of publishing field studies to guide further directions.

Data availability

The data for this study can be accessed from the corresponding author upon request.

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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. The abstract, research methodology, material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Dr. Saurabh Prajapati. The introduction, literature review, conclusion and editing part were done by Dr. Chintan Pandya. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Prajapati, S., Pandya, C. ESPR chronicles: unveiling environmental and pollution science trends across time. Discov Environ 2 , 59 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-024-00083-9

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Gender and power in china’s environmental turn: a case study of three women-led initiatives.

1. Introduction

2. fieldwork, 3. case 1: breaking the glass ceiling, 4. case 2: collecting waste—the older women’s movement, 5. case 3: faith and environmental agency, 6. conclusions, author contributions, institutional review board statement, informed consent statement, conflicts of interest.

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Share and Cite

Chen, L.; Hansen, M.H. Gender and Power in China’s Environmental Turn: A Case Study of Three Women-Led Initiatives. Soc. Sci. 2022 , 11 , 97. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci11030097

Chen L, Hansen MH. Gender and Power in China’s Environmental Turn: A Case Study of Three Women-Led Initiatives. Social Sciences . 2022; 11(3):97. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci11030097

Chen, Lu, and Mette Halskov Hansen. 2022. "Gender and Power in China’s Environmental Turn: A Case Study of Three Women-Led Initiatives" Social Sciences 11, no. 3: 97. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci11030097

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